Thread: The "House Edge", or is there another way to be growing my cash?

Hi there folks, just adding a little more discussion today regarding the "House Edge." Okay, I will assume that all of you know that the theoretical "House Edge" on the Player is 1.24% and for the Bank hand it's 1.06% right? Okay then, what does that really mean? For me, it means that if you play 100 hands you INVERT those percentages, thus, if the Bank hand has the 1.06% then you subtract the (6) from 100 and get 94; for the Player hand you would subtract the (24) from 100 and get 76. Thus, the Bank hand wins 94-76 or 18 hands more ratio wise playing thousands of hands. Now, that may be wrong, but I don't think it is. That's why the "Wizard of Odds" in his Baccarat Strategy commentary says ... "Put your Scorecards and Pencils away and just play BANK!" I say, NOT TRUE, but I will get into that in a minute.

In any regard, when you develop a Bet Selection Strategy or "Playing Strategy" as I like to refer to it, I think the REAL EDGE needs to be determined by how much you invested and how much did you return, just like a Pension Plan, Mutual Fund, Certificates of Deposit and the like. That's why I developed a special scorecard that let's me know where I am financially in the game so I can make a quick mental ratio of what my profits are relative to how much I have wagered ... does that make sense to you? You wouldn't continue to invest in a proposition that keeps losing you money as you are investing right? Okay, why would you continue to bet money using a strategy that continues to lose you money at the Baccarat Tables? If you don't keep track as you are playing how would you ever know? Just like playing the Stock Market, you need to know when to get IN and OUT of a "Stock Equity", and that happens from minute to minute just like at a Baccarat Table. Let your R.O.W. or (RETURN ON WAGERS) tell you when to leave! If you can't do it in your head, use your CELL PHONE Calculator function to assist you; you don't need to do it every hand, just every (5 - 10) hands so you are mentally aware of where you are in dropping money onto the table. Let's say that you are at No. 28, just ADD up all your bets, and let's say that came to $260.00 and you are positive in the game of $97.25, just divide 260.00 into 97.25, that equates to an 37.4% percentage R.O.W. which is respectable for sure. Thus, we invested $260 to make $97.25, this is clearly demonstrated in my thread entitled "Installment No. 2 Commentary" using SHOE DEMO_01A.PDF which tells the story.

So, by the discussion above, I compute MY HOUSE EDGE in how much I RETURN on my wagers, it's just that simple. If at Hand No. 45 my R.O.W. is around 22% and I start losing 2 or three in a row and my EDGE drops to 14%, I'm probably going out of the game and wait for another shoe, and I'm VERY Happy to do so, I just made 14% on my money in about 45 minutes and I am good to go!

Parameters for leaving a shoe ... I usually leave when the R.O.W. goes below 12%, you see you have to guage your time at the table vs. the R.O.W., your time at the table added into this mix is really discretionary from one person to the other, but if I myself can get a return of 15% - 25% in one hour I am good with that. Just set goals, either the R.O.W. as sort of a Barometer or "Units" earned in a specific time frame, but that's for another installment for discussion.

Anyway, your "PLAYING" and "BETTING" strategies working in concert with one another can most times produce a very desired effect, so don't "Put away your Paper and Pencils" like the Wizard says, just keep track of how much you are betting and how much ahead you are, it just that easy!

Once again, I wish you all good fortune at the tables.

Grab the Gold

Originally Posted by Grab The Gold

Hi there folks, just adding a little more discussion today regarding the "House Edge." Okay, I will assume that all of you know that the theoretical "House Edge" on the Player is 1.24% and for the Bank hand it's 1.06% right? Okay then, what does that really mean? For me, it means that if you play 100 hands you INVERT those percentages, thus, if the Bank hand has the 1.06% then you subtract the (6) from 100 and get 94; for the Player hand you would subtract the (24) from 100 and get 76. Thus, the Bank hand wins 94-76 or 18 hands more ratio wise playing thousands of hands.

A house-edge of 1.06% nets a casino $1.06 on each $100 bet by the player, over the long-run of 1000's of games. (By definition.)

In the average shoe, there's about one more banker-outcome than player. (The difference between the P-B probabilities is about 1.40%, so that over 100 games the banker wins 1.4 times more often.)

Sure, that has always been the way the "House Edge" has been expressed for all games, but I like the 94 over 76 because it really illustrates the edge in a more tangible way, but you are correct, your analysis has always been the way the "Edge" has been computed, just wanted to offer something different. Anyway, the actual point I was trying to get across was the RETURN ON WAGERS concept, that's where you can really assess if you are doing well using your Selection and Betting Methods.

Originally Posted by garnabby

A house-edge of 1.06% nets a casino $1.06 on each $100 bet by the player, over the long-run of 1000's of games. (By definition.)

In the average shoe, there's about one more banker-outcome than player. (The difference between the P-B probabilities is about 1.40%, so that over 100 games the banker wins 1.4 times more often.)

Originally Posted by Grab The Gold

Sure, that has always been the way the "House Edge" has been expressed for all games, but I like the 94 over 76 because it really illustrates the edge in a more tangible way, but you are correct, your analysis has always been the way the "Edge" has been computed, just wanted to offer something different. Anyway, the actual point I was trying to get across was the RETURN ON WAGERS concept, that's where you can really assess if you are doing well using your Selection and Betting Methods.

Well, that's why i usually just state my own case... careful not to summarily call anyone wrong, or a liar. (Except for Ellis/Sonny, any more.)

But i skipped the '?' marks because the way you put it seemed at first glance strange. I'm usually pretty good with the abstract thinking, but i'm still scratching my head. I don't know, maybe something will come to me later. (There's something to what you're saying, because there should be 18 more bankers over 1,300 (non-tie) outcomes.)

Well, I think you are the right track. Here's what I do to simulate a Baccarat Shoe at home if I don't do it via my programming; I take the 94 Bank hands and triple it, then I take the 76 Player hands and triple it, then I make 282 BANK Tags and 228 Player Tags, all the same size and place them in a bowl. I then place a lid on the plastic bowl and shake them vigorously between each draw for a hand, while NOT looking into the bowl to see what I'm drawing ... you'd be surprised how well that works. The ratio of expected Bank vs. Player is kept in tact and you'll see the Bank dominate every now and then, basically representing the EDGE in the number of tags in the bowl, but REALLY it is totally amazing how REAL it becomes. I have run my "Bowl" tests through my automation, and believe it or not, it has been MORE accurate than just the automation using Random Number Generation with the percentages plugged-in! Try it, you'll see. I imagine if I placed (4x or 5x) tags in the bowl, it would be even MORE accurate than it already is!