Thread: The Ellis Facts quoted by the man himself

"Casino orchestration is what the casino does to get their Baccarat profits up from about 1.26% of the money bet (commission) to 16%, the published Las Vegas avg profits for Baccarat. These numbers have also been the subject of at least one TV show. Some of it is actual slight of hand cheating but I suspect thats a small part. Most is shuffle manipulation to consistently present shoes contrary to the way players are playing. They single out winning players, determine their losing pattern and shuffle to make that pattern come up more often than it randomly should. Much more."

Now ive heard some story's in my time playing baccarat Ellis but this one is up there with the fairy's !!

"this casino has not yet learned to manipulate their shuffle machines. They will either learn quickly or go broke as many starting casinos do"

Sounds like your saying all shuffle machines are manipulated in order to win money in baccarat, thats funny because before shuffle machines they where winning plenty now with shuffle machines there winning plenty, another Random Quote by Ellis

A question from a junior member over at btc...
"Please teach me how many way and how to pre shuffle the card in baccarat game. I work in one of the Asia casino. I think pre shuffle in our casino do not correct so that why customer always won because of the good trend (all banker or player). Thanks"

Ellis's answer...
"OK, it's plain old fashioned Baccarat. I have much experience from Atlantic City. The problem is the boxed card order. From the boxes, put the cards on the table in two stacks of 4 decks each, still in boxed card order. Reverse the order of ONE stack. That is the key. To do that, take the top card off and put it on the table. The next card goes on top as if you were counting the cards. Now you have 2 stacks of 4 one in boxed card order the other in reverse boxed card order. Shuffle those together twice in 8-10 picks making one pile of 8. Now start your wash. Use the whole table and spread the cards over the table, mesmerize the cards for at least 30 seconds using your fingertips, not your palms. You should see spots of green felt through the cards. The longer you wash the chopier the cards will be. Then reorder into a stack of 8 and perform your normal shuffle routine. Once the cards have been played your normal shuffle routine should suffice but if you run into problems at any point in the day do another wash. Always use the exact same routine in your normal shuffle routine and note the effect. When you don't like the effect, change the routine. Experienced casinos Know the effect of multiple shuffle routines and number the routines so they know which routine solves which problem. Good luck"

Fact 1 A player will guess the outcome of the hand he or she has bet on and he or she has not a 50/50 chance but more like a 40% chance of gessing right and a 60% chance of guessing wrong over time,read my post on the human factor once i write it and post it, should be with in a week.

Fact 2 One table or 100 tables with the exact same shue wont change the odds of the game.

fact 3 Weather or not a dealer was signaling the eye in the sky is speculation, he could of had an itch under his chin and been looking up as he rubbed it with the back of his hand making it look like what you described.

fact 4 Who ever the dealer is the fact remains the cards will only come out of the shue in the order there in and no one knows what that order is
( don't forget there face down when there pulled out from the shue)

If all 6 cards are dealt to give a result as yourself if the last 2 cards out where switched would it change the outcome. the answer is yes sometimes and no other times

your right Fact 1 most if not all asians follow trends but thats how they play, trends can change quickly but notice one thing that happens all the time..table confidence changes as quickly as they win and loose and usualy when there winning there bets are on average smaller than when there loosing, people play baccarat backwards when it comes to betting but then again they cant play the other way because they dont know what will come next.
To me dealers are all looses in the own right, they are slaves to the casinos they don't give a dam about anyone but themselves apart from the occasional one but don't let that fool you as there job is to fleece you of your money and anything from chatting amongst themselves while dealing a game to making dealing mistakes although mostly by accident are just part of why we loose out Patience with them.. theres a fine balance in the world of human emotions when your sitting at the table trying to win while trying not to loose.

when you play a squeeze game,that where you and another player turn the cards over it turns the game into player vs player and this can cause friction with other players

just out of interest how much profit have you made since you started playing baccarat ?

Hmmm, 40% in a 50/50 game because they're human. When your opponent is destroying himself its best to simply remain silent and get out of his way. But he obviously did steal everything and you have to give him credit for that. He's a good thief.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hmmm, 40% in a 50/50 game because they're human. When your opponent is destroying himself its best to simply remain silent and get out of his way. But he obviously did steal everything and you have to give him credit for that. He's a good thief.

you can knock off the stealing as i already told you that story was fabricated for a purpose

oh and Ellis you can add your 2 cents worth of math to the 40% equation, prove me wrong, i think you will struggle !!

Look up the word "equation". I'm not going to try to prove you wrong. I couldn't do nearly as good a job as you're doing yourself. At least you're an expert at something. Warn us when you're NOT fabricating. I haven't seen that yet.

Originally Posted by Ellis

Look up the word "equation". I'm not going to try to prove you wrong. I couldn't do nearly as good a job as you're doing yourself. At least you're an expert at something. Warn us when you're NOT fabricating. I haven't seen that yet.

you cant prove me wrong on a subject you have no history in, i have studied human behavior at the baccarat table for 10 years, trust me on this one Ellis 40% is about as correct as it gets, i could really simplify it and ask you what percentage will human emotions at the baccarat table cost you in winning percentage,but i don't expect an answer from you

Originally Posted by Crusoul

Fact 1) Many people over here plays baccarat on trends... that means they love to play consecutive P/B series.. or when its choppy/zigzagging they play the opposite of the last hand. The casino knows the losing pattern of most of the players. The most players are asian players...

Fact 2) The players over here are not seriously sitting at one table they are moving from time to time to other tables. They play couple of hands on this table and if other tables are trendy they run to the other table. If all the tables have the same pattern. Then there would be no favorite table for some players to play at. The casino is keeping the players loosing at every table.

Fact 3) This was absolutely no speculation. This was was not a itch under his chin... He was making a killing signal (I kill him). I felt personally harassed by this guy. It is definitely clear that dealers are able to intimidate/irritate people, some people will leave the table.

Fact 4) Once I was playing couple of thousand euros per hand. I was riding a consecutive serie streak. I was killing the table, then I was so enthousiastic that I threw a card too hard on the table so it felt on the floor... Out of the blue a pitboss stormed at me and started to yelling to kick me off the table... This was so rude, I explained to him that it was an accident and I was too happy to see a natural 9... He insisted me to leave the casino. I acted that I didnt hear him. Pffff all the crowd around me said the pitboss were acting to stupid. Accidents can happen, a card can fly away. I didn't do it by purpose. He never came back to the table and I saw him 6 months pitbossing only the roulette tables. He did not came back to the baccarat tables for a year.. Well... after all this guy had was he wanted to have. I was so shocked by the pitboss that I was not concentrated enough to play big on that streak. I didnt hit the streak. It was a 15 series of banker... Where I only won 4 bankers.

Crusoul,

1. "Many people over here plays baccarat on trends..." So why put more trends into it, by removing the randomness. (By any other means than just shuffling a minute less, of course. BTW, Ellis never did answer how any "4-minute stacked deck" circumvents the 2-second cut... he only claims to not want to tell (also) the casinos; but of course, then they'd already know, right?)

2. "The casino is keeping the players loosing at every table." Why wise up the "suckers"? Why consider only the impossible/silly ways to achieve that? (Also i got a "kick" out of that finger/palm "trick". I went back to the site one day to copy it, but it was already deleted... wonder why? (No, not really.))

3. "It is definitely clear that dealers are able to intimidate/irritate people, some people will leave the table." Dealers are separately-licensed entities... they hold NO stake in the casino's fortunes.

Anyway, what you're describing isn't even "speculation". More like imagined anecdotes.

4. Nonsense? What about the times a dealer scratched his chin, and you would have lost had you remained?

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Anyway, i think most of this debate has already been well-covered in this forum. Ellis, show some consideration for the remainder of us, take the time to read all that's here, and provide some links with any new arguments for, or against.

Give up the "good cop/bad cop" routine... ever back-and-forth, always re-hashing the same old stuff in exactly the same old manner (, and type). One day, you like us, the next it's changed. Isn't it becoming ironically apparent from even only a few of they smypathetic to Ellis', and Ellis of course, their off-but-never-really-on-topic conversations (, which CAN'T lead anywhere,) the personal-attacks bickering (, as opposed to presenting and arguing the facts,) and that obsessive/compulsive pre-occupation with anything (not perfectly) grammatical? Eg, Savant and i had, as Katweezel put it, a "little war in the past"... but in my opinion, a productive well-directed, and short one. Life got a bit better.

The above hasn't been a problem here (yet for myself anyway), perhaps because we haven't had that many serious arguments... by which the loser sometimes resorts to it. So let's please give this a rest, a lot of us have already had enough. ELLIS DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING EVEN WORTH BICKERING OVER. (Show me a single useful FACT; no speculation, anecdotes, or personal feelings.) If you want to throw away all reason, emotion, and the connection to anything real... pay your $500, and start singing his hymn: "Second verse... same as the first." Please do your "singing" over there where someone's "listening"... namely you, yourself. Hey, why not even spend the rest of your productive life trying to make the (first) quick $million on "Uncle Ellis" over there... perhaps by one of his "fully-comped", luxury trips to Tunica, no less, for which, remember, he "no longer cares about money". No one really even has to "watch him" to figure out how that ends. After he loses, everyone who saw it is one person; but after he wins, suddenly the whole world saw it.

Well, OK, lets put the barbs aside for a moment. Here is your statement again:

"Fact 1 A player will guess the outcome of the hand he or she has bet on and he or she has not a 50/50 chance but more like a 40% chance of gessing right and a 60% chance of guessing wrong over time,read my post on the human factor once i write it and post it, should be with in a week."

Allow me to rephrase your statement in plain English and correct the spelling again. Lets take the Garnabby out of it:

"The avg Bac player loses 60% of the hands he plays. I'll show you the proof next week."

Is that not exactly what you said in a nutshell?

OK, I'll await your proof and meanwhile hold my tongue. Deal?

But look at this whole situation you find yourself in: For some strange reason you have picked me to conquer and insult for some strange motivation, perhaps to short cut yourself to higher esteem in the gaming world. Fat chance! You haven't paid your dues.

Hey my friend that just ain't gonna happen.

Lets give you a little license with your age. "ten years of gambling" plus 21 equals 31. I'll bet hard money you aren't even that old. You certainly go out of your way to prove that.

Personally, I was a late comer to Gambling. Unless you count the years of teaching college level Calculus, which for all intents and purposes is gambling math. There are two great math schools in the US, MIT and RPI. I taught at RPI under invitation. I worked for SUNY at the time, the largest University in the world. But they were quick to put me out on loan to both the math schools and the Corporations wence I came. I was paid a high salary to go to the schools but I ended up gambling for a living for one reason. It paid more! What are YOUR credentials? The same as Garnabbys. ZERO!

"Ten years of studying human behavior". What do you think? In 30 years of endless tables and studying the situation I was oblivious to human behavior. Gambling, in itself, is a study of human behavior. Ask any professional poker player. Ask Poker Chip for instance.

Yet you, a wet behind the ears kid, choose me to make fun of and insult in every way possible. And then you wonder why no one pays attention. I have to marvel at your audacity. I offer my years of experience to anyone who wants to learn from it. Or, of course, they could go by YOUR experience. Their choice.

OK kid, you've got the stage all to yourself now. Lets cut the BS. Explain to us exactly why all Baccarat players, on avg. lose 60% of the hands we play. We are all waiting. So either put up or shut T F up.

Hey Crusoul, nice posts but.......

You'll soon see that this forum has no use for real experience. All ideas and innovation are twarted by boss Garnabby and faithful companion The Baccarat Kid.

Garnabby demonstrated his experience when he had no idea of what back betting is. Good Lord! Faithful companion just finished demonstrating his. Everyone on this forum is afraid to speak out. They'll just get insulted for their efforts. The two know it alls rule. This forum is doomed. Arguing with these guys, you might as well argue with a beer can. They already know everything and are willing to listen to no one regardless of experience.

But please, my forum respects experience. We love it. You'll be much happier there and far more popular. Give us a shout beatthecasino.com. We will listen and appreciate. These guys here will just take fun in tearing you up. No one will come to your defense. They are too scared. It's a crying shame.

Hey Mike, Everyone else banned these know nothing jerks for a reason. Wake up before its too late. As promised I'm done here. It's of no use at all. I hope you enjoyed the spike. S'long, Ellis

Yep that was the true Ellis style right there get pissed off and ban us, whoops wrong forum sorry Ellis your leaving not us !!

As for the win 40% or loose 60% its like is your cup 40% full or 60% empty init !!

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hey Crusoul, nice posts but.......

You'll soon see that this forum has no use for real experience. All ideas and innovation are twarted by boss Garnabby and faithful companion The Baccarat Kid.

Garnabby demonstrated his experience when he had no idea of what back betting is. Good Lord! Faithful companion just finished demonstrating his. Everyone on this forum is afraid to speak out. They'll just get insulted for their efforts. The two know it alls rule. This forum is doomed. Arguing with these guys, you might as well argue with a beer can. They already know everything and are willing to listen to no one regardless of experience.

But please, my forum respects experience. We love it. You'll be much happier there and far more popular. Give us a shout beatthecasino.com. We will listen and appreciate. These guys here will just take fun in tearing you up. No one will come to your defense. They are too scared. It's a crying shame.

Crusoul pay no attention to him (Ellis) hes a bit eccentric these days, stick with us and we will do out up most to help you win baccarat, I play here in London UK what casino do you play here ?

Hey thebaccaratkid,

Do you ever come up to Birmingham, if so what casino do you go to?

Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid

Crusoul pay no attention to him (Ellis) hes a bit eccentric these days, stick with us and we will do out up most to help you win baccarat, I play here in London UK what casino do you play here ?

Not been up there to play yet.

Originally Posted by Crusoul

We players cannot prove anything of scam/casino cheats since we are not able to record hard evidence in real casinos. It is like ghosts. They exists statistically. But have I/you ever seen onein real life? I am believing in ghosts anyway. Am I a sucker or someone with a big imagination?

But YOU continue to make YOUR OWN (illogical and groundless) case?

Actually, if you would take the time to read my other posts here and there (on other forums), you'd have noticed my own legal knowledge regarding anything casino. Go to your library, read some bj-books to see some actual and common casino-stories. Quit chasing "ghosts".

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hey Mike, Everyone else banned these know nothing jerks for a reason. Wake up before its too late. As promised I'm done here. It's of no use at all. I hope you enjoyed the spike. S'long, Ellis

The "spike" in complaints?

Ya, Ellis, were all the same "know nothing jerk" banned from everywhere. Or more likely the other way around?

So i bet he'll be back soon... he's that desperate for the money and attention.

Originally Posted by Crusoul

I am out of here too... Too many nutcases here fooling around with 0,0% added value to the forum.

Cya

Eg, here's a recent piece of mine from VLS. You wouldn't have any actual common experiences like this would you, Crusoul? Perhaps it is EASIER "chasing ghosts" by not looking before you leap (to the casinos)?

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Moral, ethical, and legal issues.
« Thread Started on Sept 16th, 2009 at 6:42pm »This post of excerpts from the VLS-thread at http://vlsroulette.com/gambling-and-roul....ou-exce-t12149/ touches on all of the above issues. The gist of it is that every one in a casino, including "the house", is a player; the dealers are only separately-licensed participants. Anyone may protest any dealer decision (pay-off) while the egs, the cards are on the rack AND CAN BE RETRIEVED (by the dealer BEFORE THE NEXT DEAL BEGINS), or the roulette-ball is still on the last winning number... ie, in between games. "Tape-checks" are rarely used to resolve such disputes, regardless of one being informed that has been done. For more-detailed information, the reader may wish to consult his/her location-specific (legal) gaming acts and reg's.

In any event, once a player has been paid, it is no longer a "casino matter". Eg, it becomes (at the time) only an internal-police matter when an over-paid player refuses to acknowledge a properly called-for and resolved dispute. (Almost every casino has a couple gaming-division police-officers on staff. Still, they have "sweeping powers", so in the event of "heat" like two persons behind and infront watching you play (bj)... head for the front door loudly. They have rooms "not on the blue-prints".) In such cases, my advice to players is to immediately relinquish any over-payments... perhaps only to take further action(s) later after re-assessing one's actual position. But in almost every case, most casinos are more than happy to let most things go, and to do some checks not legally required.

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If there is an over-pay or a wrong pay-out think twice before you except it.
« on: September 10, 2009, 07:31:55 AM » Reply Quote

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Don't take some one else winning bet if the dealer makes the mistake and give it to you.
The rules and conditions is different regarding country and casino.
This happen my friend in Sweden at our local international casino.

1 year ago he took a winning bet "100 Euro" that was not hes winning bet.
The dealer made the mistake and my friend took the pay with an smile on hes face.

Then one day for not so long ago when he visit our casino a guard told him that the Pit Boss would like to talk to him.
The Pit Boss told him this...

We have video that show us that you took an winning bet "100 Euro" that was not your winning bet.
You can pay us back the "100 Eruo" and get an 30 days ban or you can skip to pay us back the money and you will get a ban for a life time.

My friend did not pay them back the money and got an life time ban.
Guess what...

If there is an over-pay or a wrong pay-out think twice before you except it.
I would be honest and give any over-payment or wrong pay-out back.

Cheers LS

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Lucky,

What the hell is wrong with you guys?

Tell your friend to gather some more information, and look for a good out-of-town lawyer to sue their asses off.

garnabby.

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If it's your chips, your bet that won, and the dealer overpays you, take it. They can't accuse you of anything if they see it. It's the dealer's mistake, not yours.

Dealers are human beings and make mistakes. Simply don't forget to make sure you count your winnings to make sure you're not under-payed: if the dealer overpays you, take it, if he underpays you, politely ask him to double-check the payment before you mix it with your chips.

HOWEVER, if a dealer mistakenly pays you with someone else's chips/won bet, do NOT take that.

Marven.

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Marven,

Chips now come with persons' names on them? And dealers are no longer required to remedy such disputes in a timely fashion (, as are the players)? Now they may ban you for any (irrelevant) reason anytime w/o notice?

No wonder the new pop-up ads here... when the old motto from the old site used to be something like to beat (only) the casinos.

garnabby.

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It's commonsense. They pay you with someone else's won bet, don't take it. It's too obviously not yours. This is to avoid disputes in the first place, with both the house and the players.

But when it comes to your own bets, do accept over-payments and reject under-payments. You'd be surprised how often inexperienced/bored/tired dealers overpay/underpay (especially when playing straight up numbers). The house is exploiting your weaknesses, why not exploit theirs?

Marven.

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Quote: Sent by Lucky Strike on September 13, 2009, 04:38:18 PM
If they has a hard line of policy and look at video and come back one year later to get there 100 Euro back, well guess what, no way I would risk my ass.
I guess they don't do this every where but this has happen and can happen again.




Lucky,

My experience and knowlegde tells me they don't do that anywhere, one year later. Non-sense?



Marven,

Other players are not in any way responsible for rectifying my mistakes even while the window for appeal is open (while, eg, the cards are still racked). Asfaras a properly called-for and resolved "dispute", how could that not be the end of it?

In a casino, every one is a player. Opening the door to anything else is what leads to the really-big disputes, egs, sticking one's nose into others' pots, or one bj-player "fingering" another as a "counter" to the pit-crew. (Yes, I've had the latter happen to myself a few times. Casino-losers hate true winners, even though we're "supposed" to all be "players" there. One time I said, "Nice bj", walking past some guy with a thousand down... and almost got punched in the face for my remark.)

In fact I once let an other's much bigger banker-bet(?) "slip past" my own in the hopes of some "reciprocation", but which never came.

It's far better to have "the other guy" learn once (when he figures it out later) then to perpetuate a "pansy". Eg, the "joker" beside you palming off a few of your black chips only to later reveal how easy it was, doesn't compare to when things really don't add up at the end of the day. Heck, I (accidently once) dropped a couple of purple chips on the floor only to have one of the "prostitutes" behind us try to get a foot over it. Do you think I'd have got it back? Still think it's "common sense"? Or just every one playing by the same rules?

garnabby.

Originally Posted by Crusoul

I am out of here too... Too many nutcases here fooling around with 0,0% added value to the forum.

Cya

But if you were referring to Ellis' "clan"... yes, i see your point.

Originally Posted by Crusoul

Chasing ghosts is not easy dude. Again, You don't know what you are talking about...

I have seen many of your posts on many forums... You have a bad reputation and even banned! You sound sometimes like a crazy dog too me trying to prove something. I think you are just a looser, a wanne be baccarat expert. The only thing you can do is posting flaming messages on gambling forums. Get a life man!

Post a descent gambling system of yourself here and we are talking business again.

Oh man here we go again must be an Ellis lover

Originally Posted by natural9

Oh man here we go again must be an Ellis lover

What gets me is that those guys preach it's impossible to win (even one game), but they, themselves, keep right at it... and with non-starter methods, which don't even speak about the game, itself.

Ellis couldn't write an intelligent-enough post to get kicked out of "romper room".

Originally Posted by Ellis

Hey Mike, Everyone else banned these know nothing jerks for a reason. Wake up before its too late. As promised I'm done here. It's of no use at all. I hope you enjoyed the spike. S'long, Ellis

If you are still around, How is this suppose to look to those who are trying to get to believe in you?

Joshky this is Ellis's typical response when he cant control whats happening, ban ban ban ho ho ho

Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid

Joshky this is Ellis's typical response when he cant control whats happening, ban ban ban ho ho ho

thebaccaratkid,

And i think we both know, the next thing he'll do is deny it was really he who was here... like he did a while back on BTC, when he denied spamming, etc, on the GG (, when i asked him a few more things about his "brief appearance" there at the GG).

As well, just like the real him to try to foist his own faults on every one else. He talks about all the scammers, "slammers", and "internet guys"... while in the same breath, making up another "whopper".

I simply have to ask, why would a person, who is so intelligent, gifted, and has their own "business" that they profess to be so successful, waste their time on another group that wants to learn, and share? A good business professional, doesn't waste their time or energy, concerning themself with what others are doing, IF.....their creativity, insights, knowledge and expertise, far surpasses what anyone else is doing, UNLESS they are trying to compete with others. Competition divides, separates, and splinters individuals and groups into their own purpose. However, cooperation, community, sharing and caring, brings together individuals and groups for a common cause, purpose and goal. As baccarat players, yes we are in competition with the casinos, and they are in competition with us. System sellers will always say they are in competition with the casino, and on the side of the players, but I know for a FACT, alot of sellers sell their systems to the players, and also sell the names of their customers to the casinos. So now, who becomes the competition besides the casinos? The good old wolves in sheep clothing. Sellers also want a piece of the action from casinos and the players. Isn't GREED one of the worst characteristics a player can have? In time, no matter who, or what side of the "industry" you are in, IT WILL defeat you.

Thanks littogage for "setting the table" here.

Originally Posted by littogage

However, cooperation, community, sharing and caring, brings together individuals and groups for a common cause, purpose and goal.

We can each only bring different things to the table here. Sure, there's such a thing as "friendly competition" to build on that, but such cooperation is the only way for any one who truly wants to "learn by sharing".

Asfaras "us against the casinos", we will never win "dividedly"... nor by selling our work to anyone for $500.

Originally Posted by littogage

Isn't GREED one of the worst characteristics a player can have? In time, no matter who, or what side of the "industry" you are in, IT WILL defeat you.

I have often said, well, if any one holds "the nuts" on some corner of this "game of life", then "the more power to you"... go out and make the most of it, "slap" down every one along the way. BUT YOU HAD BETTER BE DAMN SURE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ON YOUR OWN, AND BE LEFT WITH YOURSELF.

Once you start selling something w/o qualifications, guarantees, good will, references, etc... there's literally NO GOING BACK. And specifically, the baccarat-trail is littered with wasted lives of lies and deceptions.

What's your life worth to you... $500?