Thread: Baccarat table trends?

I realize that this is a very controvercial subject but here are two sequential shoes recorded in Australia last night:

P3513131115231115521214121112111121111
P2321121132111121344111112122111112111153111

I appreciate this is only two shoes but these two shoes are so far out of the random envelope that it gives one pause no matter your conviction.

Australia has a penchant to buy preshuffled cards.

I've asked this player to do two things: record more shoes at the same time of day and find out if purchased preshuffled cards were used.

This table produced rare shoes extremely similar to the table We played in Vegas that night at GC. Perhaps Garnabby would be good enough to confirm. The GC table WAS using purchased preshuffled cards.

We naturally played TB4L and killed the table.

I'll post whatever I find out, either way.

Oh yeah, deciphering only for those who don't know: Forgot where I was.

P3513131115231115521214121112111121111
P2321121132111121344111112122111112111153111

This means the first shoe started with 3 Players, 5 Banks, 1 Player, 3 Banks. Get it?

TB4L stands for Time Before Last.

For instance if you play these two shoes simple OTB4L as they are screaming at you to do, U1D1 M2 you score 40 and 43 respectively. If you base at 2 instead of 1 you score 51 and 45 respectively.

U1D1 M2 means starting at 1 on play 3 bet up 1 after a loss and down 1 after a win and always follow a 1 bet with a 2 regardlee whether the 1 wins or loses. Don't go below 1.

Here are some more shoes from the same casino the same day:


B2111211911 P222131212112 P13121144111 P312 End
B11511331121 B11212111122212 P1 Quit
P12131211141 Quit
P121311111113111 P61143311 Quit
P2314111223 P41121011 B1123 Quit
P11121111112142 P11272151 B1141312141 Quit
P41112611211 P11263211111 B1112152151 P6311 End
B42111173 B3112134212 B131111111112131 B25312 End
B111311114411 P111113 Quit

I'm seeing way too many 1 in a rows. How about you?

I think you defiantly been drinking too much wine Ellis !!
What your seeing is nothing extraordinary..the first shue was 43/27 for the banker and the second was even, What you should understand is that the outcome in a six and 8 deck shues can vary by as much as 2/3rds (IE bank wins 2/3rds of the shue or the player wins 2/3rds of the shue), the usual variance is anything from 0% to around 30% and the extreme shifts can be around 40% to 70%,this can be for either banker or player and the larger the variance the less it occurs

Ive played a hand shuffled 6 deck game for the last few yrs and ive see large swings up to 70% in a few cases but on average the most of the shues are closer to 20%,Ive played all the casinos in New Zealand shues where 8 deck and 6 deck and the results where the same some where hand shuffled and some where machine shuffled, I also spent a month in star city in Australia where they had machine shuffling and hand shuffling and the shues where no different from the shues i play today in % variance.

Some say preshuffled cards are less random,some say the same about both machine and hand shuffles, Personaly it really dosnt mater because whatever order the cards are placed in the shue thats the order they come out and given the Fact you cant predict with any accuracy what order the cards will come out of the shue trying to work out how what order there put into the shue results in pure speculation.


You remember you said back in the old days you use to see long runs regularly well now the casino shuffles the cards so you get lots on singles HaHa, i was just reading your bit you posted a while back on your website about how the casino singles out high rollers on the tables and shuffles the cards to contradict there style of play there fore making then loose. !!

God save us. I thought you said you already knew everything. I'm not talking about the B/P base. Who cares about that? Beginners use that base. I'm talking about TB4L vs OTB4L. These shoes are highly TB4L favorable. TOO high. They've also got too many ones. The normal freqency of occurrence for 1's is 18/72. What is the standard deviation? You can't just look at B/P. You'd be grossly short changing yourself. You've got to look at all 9 shoe trends. I suppose you'd call a shoe that started with 36 Banks and ended with 36 Players normal too since B and P are equal. No wonder you can't see trends.

Originally Posted by Ellis

God save us. I thought you said you already knew everything. I'm not talking about the B/P base. Who cares about that? Beginners use that base. I'm talking about TB4L vs OTB4L. These shoes are highly TB4L favorable. TOO high. They've also got too many ones. The normal freeqency of occurrence for 1's is 18/72. What is the standard deviation? You can't just look at B/P. You'd be grossly short changing yourself. You've got to look at all 9 shoe trends. I suppose you'd call a shoe that started with 36 Banks and ended with 36 Players normal too since B and P are equal. No wonder you can't see trends.

ellis your complaining the shues are too high for tb4l haha, heres a quote from you on your website..
"In Baccarat the 20 in a rows we used to see daily have completely disappeared. Even 12 and 15 in a rows are not nearly as common as they used to be. I've had two 20 in a rows in the same shoe."
now if you got 20s in a row whats stopping the game getting 20 singles in a row ?

we could always Analise your
1. 27 Bank
2. 27 Player
3. 28 ZZ
4. 26 terrible twos
lets say your 28zz's was extreme so what do you call a run od 6zz or even 10 zz's, dont know about you but idd call it within the bounds of the game

Look, the first shoe has a -8 OT count, 8 more TB4L plays than OTB4L. That's high but not very remarkable. The 2nd consecutive shoe has a -6 OT count. That's beginning to get interesting. But on top of that every shoe after that is high - OT count. You see no trend? Get out of town. That's 11 shoes in a row with a high minus count, a couple very high.

One shoe with a high count is not a trend but 11 shoes in a row all with high counts in the same direction?

If the first bus is very late you hope it isn't a trend. But if the next ten buses are also very late are you going to bet the next one will be on time? Not me. I'm gonna look for a reason all the busses are late. Maybe its a snow storm!

Lets for a minute remove systems applied and look at the posted shues based on whats relevant such as why did 10zz's happen and what are the percentage chances, try and come up with some answers based on your math background please and then we can discuss the probability of shue results etc without the need to imply any systems, im off to bed its late here in London.

Originally Posted by Ellis

God save us... I suppose you'd call a shoe that started with 36 Banks and ended with 36 Players normal too since B and P are equal. No wonder you can't see trends.

Ellis,

Not even Aegis would fall for that.

Look, here's a post of mine from VLS an hour ago about RNG's at on-line casinos... just for an example.

********************************************

Mike.off wrote,

True about RNG's
« on: September 12, 2009, 05:11:38 PM »
Reply Quote
Found on another forum. . .
Must be read by all of you

Advice from a Software Engineer

Hi Folks,

First of all let me introduce myself. I'm new here and I would like to give you my humble opinion about online gambling on roulette (Sorry for my bad english). I'm graduated in Computer Science and System Engineer and in the last 8 years I've been developing software for several companies, including online casinos. As you already know there're several types of RNG. On the past almost all the online casinos were using Pseudo Random Number Generators (learn more in wikipedia). PRNG output numbers based on known seeds (normally a date/time) and it's major flaw is that over time and with historical data you can predict what's the next number that the RNG will output. Since this is a major flaw all the online casinos today moved away from PRNG to True Random Number Generators (if you're curious search Lava Rand in google ). TRNG outputs numbers that isn't correlated with each other, which means that historical data means nothing. a TRNG can output for instance the number 4 indefinitely. So said this I'm kind of risking my reputation with the information that I'll give you (I'll not tell names). Most of the available online casinos doesn't play fair (as you guess it). Online casinos are using Fixed True Random Number Generators, which means that if the casino is losing money they'll manipulate the draw number to not let you win. Most of the time you're not sensible enough to notice that because the casino cannot win all the time so win from time to time. What you must know is that online casinos stipulates a bar of gains (for month for instance) and never let the casino drop below that line. So when the casino is winning money it progressively let you win some hands/money but in the end if the casino is losing you'll eventually lose all your money, because they'll fix the output. Mind that what I'm saying is a very risk statement but I know what I'm talking about. Almost all online casinos doesn't play fair for roulette. So I'm sorry if I break your dream of getting rich gambling in online roulettes. I'm a gambler too and I'm very interested in Cryptography and RNG. So if you're the kind of person (like me) that loves to gamble I suggest that you do it in real casinos. Why ? Simple croupiers can be studied, you can learn how the croupier spin the ball, how many times the ball spin after outputing a number and you can adjust your game to guess the numbers.

I hope that you're clever enough to take my advice in consideration and don't let yourself be fooled by online casinos. I've participated in developing gambling software and I know what I'm talking about.

Thank you for the attention and time.

*****************************************

I replied,

Re: True about RNG's
« Reply #64 on: September 17, 2009, 05:09:02 PM »
Reply Quote Modify Remove
Off hand, "fixing" any (previously) random outcome takes away the randomness... which is, in the long-run, asking for trouble. And the whole thing would be even more vulnerable to internal, large-scale employee-theft. Why wouldn't the cheaters just cheat? (As I suspect on-liners SOMETIMES do, if only to artificially create the odd winner for advertisement purposes.)

In my day, all this used to be called "electrical engineering"; now, it's called "electrical and computer engineering", or just "computer science" (from the math-dept point-of-view). W/o something more, and from what conspicuously little there is to "work with" there, I would say that whoever composed that "blurb" is a graduate from neither.

Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid

Lets for a minute remove systems applied and look at the posted shues based on whats relevant such as why did 10zz's happen and what are the percentage chances, try and come up with some answers based on your math background please and then we can discuss the probability of shue results etc without the need to imply any systems, im off to bed its late here in London.

I just did but it is absolutely no use. I think you're doing the right thing. Stick to betting against losers.

Garnabby, no point in copying the whole thing again.

Interesting article even if it has nothing whatsoever to do with the subject at hand. I could understand Him even though his native language isn't English.

I'm very interested in your reply but I'm not sure what your stance is. Are you agreeing with him or disagreeing with him? It sounds like you are calling him a liar? Or maybe incompetant? Or a fraud? Is that close to what you are saying? What would you say his purpose of writing his article was? And what was the purpose of your reply? Are you saying on line casinos don't cheat? If any of what I wrote is right and I'm not at all sure that it was, how can you call someone a liar W/O offering any credentials of your own whatsoever? It makes you look like purely a name caller W/O reason or justification. I don't think that's an image you want to nourish. Surely you shouldn't be copying your reply for even more people to see. It's not something to be proud of unless I'm totally missing the boat. Am I?

Well I don't know too much about trends in Bacarrat, but I do know that in the game of Blackjack there are trends, and that this shows up in computer simulations which properly model card pickups and dealer shuffle. We know a lot about the shuffles used in Blackjack, and we know that the processes acting on the cards create order, and that the shuffle is not sufficient to disrupt that order.

I would not be at all surprised if the same applied to Baccarrat.

Ellis i guess since your a trend follower you will have noticed that in roulette there are the same patterns as in baccarat,IE zz's streaks 2's 3's 4's etc, my question to you is why is this happening based on your ideas of card orchestration and the FACT the spin in roulette is pure random event, how can the outcome be the same ?

Interesting and relative posted on my public forum today; Sorry for the spaces. I don't know how to get rid of them. But, hey Mike, I think I at least got the print size right.

Lucky999
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I am new to this website (everybody please read)
Hello everyone.

I live in the Seattle area.

We have lots of Indian casino's we can play at up here in the Seattle area.
I don't know of anyone who flys to Reno or Vegas anymore.

I have been playing baccarat almost everyday for the last two years now.

The casino I play at has six mini baccarat tables. (8 decks per shoe)
The Asians seem to just pour into this casino everyday just to play baccarat!
Gallery Bets are allowed and the dealers collect commissions as they go.
Anotherwords... People can float around and make a bet on any table they like anytime they want. All you do is reach your arm between two players already seated and place your bet on the white line that separates the zones.

The tables have automatic card shufflers. (if this means anything)
Plus the dealers mix up the cards a little before the machine shuffles.
But what I have noticed at this casino in the last year is amazing.
The amount of Banker and Player runs...
Everyday I see Banker and Player runs of 6 to 15 on every table. (many of them!)

This is amazing!
And remember the maximum bet is $500.
So if you bet on the 9 spots and the 8 white lines then the players can get in 17 $500 bets. (totaling $8,500 per deal)
And on those long Banker runs I have seen the Asians wipe out a dealers tray in no time flat!
So what the casino did was they ordered a bunch of orange $1,000 chips. Now the players can color up, even though they aren't allowed to bet those orange $1,000 chips.

I saw an Asian guy one night betting on 5 different spots of $500 each. He was flat betting $2,500 per deal. He won $110,000 that night. And you know that didn't go unnoticed by some of the casino big wigs.

Some of the Asians have a whole lot of patience!
A few will sit at a table for 45 minutes without even making a bet.
Then when the Banker run appears they will make a $500 bet or $1,000 bet.
They seem to like to use the 2X and 3X martingales. Not going any higher than 3.

And I will agree with this type of play.
Just wait for the long runs and then make your move!

The other night I was playing at a table that had a Player run of 11.
Everybody at the table was betting Player and everybody was winning!

It is really hard to lose at baccarat if you have lots of patience and just wait for the banker and player runs.

Then use that Commando "Hit and Run" strategy.
Get out the door ASAP with the casino's dough!

Easy Money!

Lucky999

09-19-2009, 05:09 AM #2 (permalink) wolfat

Universal Bac Player


Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Asti, Italy
Posts: 652

Re: I am new to this website (everybody please read)

Hi Lucky,

you're right when you play fitting table conditions but remember that in other places these are often different, so, till it holds, squeeze money from tables.

Our master, Ellis tells us: always choose easy tables, don't fight against bad conditions, leave it!

andrea

__________________

sapper

09-19-2009, 06:11 AM #3 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis

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Re: I am new to this website (everybody please read)

Hi Lucky! And that's an understatement. Very interesting post! I totally agree with Wolfat. Make money as fast as you can while you can and WATCH for the worm to turn. Things will surely change. One of two things is happening: Either this is an extremely extravagant Marketing ploy or...

this casino has not yet learned to manipulate their shuffle machines. They will either learn quickly or go broke as many starting casinos do. You will likely see a new, more experienced Casino Mgr taking over very soon as the Board of Directors catches up to the rest of the world. We have seen all this before:

We recently received a plea from an inexperienced new Casino Mgr in outback Australia asking us how to shuffle to get rid of all the runs that were driving them broke every day.

When Atlantic City first introduced Baccarat 25 years ago they went through the same phenomenon. We saw 15 and 20+ in a rows every day. It took them a couple years to figure out how to stop this. BUT THEY DID! So will your casino.

We saw the same thing at the largest casino in the world, Foxwood, back when it was a little more than a Quanset Hut. But they quickly learned as well.

By comparison, I've seen one 15 in a row at my casinos in the last year and not one in the prior year. That's todays real world.

Like a highly experienced Casino Mgr. at Paradise Island once told me, It's all in the shuffle. This is obviously true with both hand shuffles and machines.

Make your money NOW. It won't last!

__________________
BeatTheCasino

Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 09-19-2009 at 06:18 AM.

But of course we all know that Baccarat is completely random. Shuffles are not manipulative and there are no table trends. Sure we do.

Originally Posted by Ellis

We recently received a plea from an inexperienced new Casino Mgr in outback Australia asking us how to shuffle to get rid of all the runs that were driving them broke every day.

Oh Ellis i would call that an out and out LIE !!! FACT all casinos in australia follow strict shuffling procedures
and this ..."this casino has not yet learned to manipulate their shuffle machines. They will either learn quickly or go broke as many starting casinos do." pure speculation with no FACTS to back up your claim.

I feel sorry for you in a way, i know you want to be known as the one and only in the baccarat world but that little comment has sent your reputation all the way back to the dark ages.

Yes, I'm sure you would. That suits you perfectly. I'ts in the material you stole but obviously never read. Look it up.

Have you been drinking again Ellis, your answers are getting more garbled, try answering the question i asked you, why are baccarat patterns similar to roulette patterns yet one is pure random and the other constricted to 416 cards, failing this maybe you can answer the burning question of how do you shuffle to avoid long runs ?

that brings me to the FACT that the next hand in baccarat no mater how many past hands have been dealt you still cant predict with any more accuracy than 50% the outcome of the next hand.

Nearly time for Dinner.

Interesting and relative posted on my public forum today; Sorry for the spaces. I don't know how to get rid of them. But, hey Mike, I think I at least got the print size right.

Lucky999
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I am new to this website (everybody please read)
Hello everyone.

I live in the Seattle area.

We have lots of Indian casino's we can play at up here in the Seattle area.
I don't know of anyone who flys to Reno or Vegas anymore.

I have been playing baccarat almost everyday for the last two years now.

The casino I play at has six mini baccarat tables. (8 decks per shoe)
The Asians seem to just pour into this casino everyday just to play baccarat!
Gallery Bets are allowed and the dealers collect commissions as they go.
Anotherwords... People can float around and make a bet on any table they like anytime they want. All you do is reach your arm between two players already seated and place your bet on the white line that separates the zones.

The tables have automatic card shufflers. (if this means anything)
Plus the dealers mix up the cards a little before the machine shuffles.
But what I have noticed at this casino in the last year is amazing.
The amount of Banker and Player runs...
Everyday I see Banker and Player runs of 6 to 15 on every table. (many of them!)

This is amazing!
And remember the maximum bet is $500.
So if you bet on the 9 spots and the 8 white lines then the players can get in 17 $500 bets. (totaling $8,500 per deal)
And on those long Banker runs I have seen the Asians wipe out a dealers tray in no time flat!
So what the casino did was they ordered a bunch of orange $1,000 chips. Now the players can color up, even though they aren't allowed to bet those orange $1,000 chips.

I saw an Asian guy one night betting on 5 different spots of $500 each. He was flat betting $2,500 per deal. He won $110,000 that night. And you know that didn't go unnoticed by some of the casino big wigs.

Some of the Asians have a whole lot of patience!
A few will sit at a table for 45 minutes without even making a bet.
Then when the Banker run appears they will make a $500 bet or $1,000 bet.
They seem to like to use the 2X and 3X martingales. Not going any higher than 3.

And I will agree with this type of play.
Just wait for the long runs and then make your move!

The other night I was playing at a table that had a Player run of 11.
Everybody at the table was betting Player and everybody was winning!

It is really hard to lose at baccarat if you have lots of patience and just wait for the banker and player runs.

Then use that Commando "Hit and Run" strategy.
Get out the door ASAP with the casino's dough!

Easy Money!

Lucky999

09-19-2009, 05:09 AM #2 (permalink) wolfat

Universal Bac Player


Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Asti, Italy
Posts: 652

Re: I am new to this website (everybody please read)

Hi Lucky,

you're right when you play fitting table conditions but remember that in other places these are often different, so, till it holds, squeeze money from tables.

Our master, Ellis tells us: always choose easy tables, don't fight against bad conditions, leave it!

andrea

__________________

sapper

09-19-2009, 06:11 AM #3 (permalink) E. Clifton Davis

Professional Player | Co-Founder

Join Date: Nov 2005
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Re: I am new to this website (everybody please read)

Hi Lucky! And that's an understatement. Very interesting post! I totally agree with Wolfat. Make money as fast as you can while you can and WATCH for the worm to turn. Things will surely change. One of two things is happening: Either this is an extremely extravagant Marketing ploy or...

this casino has not yet learned to manipulate their shuffle machines. They will either learn quickly or go broke as many starting casinos do. You will likely see a new, more experienced Casino Mgr taking over very soon as the Board of Directors catches up to the rest of the world. We have seen all this before:

We recently received a plea from an inexperienced new Casino Mgr in outback Australia asking us how to shuffle to get rid of all the runs that were driving them broke every day.

When Atlantic City first introduced Baccarat 25 years ago they went through the same phenomenon. We saw 15 and 20+ in a rows every day. It took them a couple years to figure out how to stop this. BUT THEY DID! So will your casino.

We saw the same thing at the largest casino in the world, Foxwood, back when it was a little more than a Quanset Hut. But they quickly learned as well.

By comparison, I've seen one 15 in a row at my casinos in the last year and not one in the prior year. That's todays real world.

Like a highly experienced Casino Mgr. at Paradise Island once told me, It's all in the shuffle. This is obviously true with both hand shuffles and machines.

Make your money NOW. It won't last!

__________________
BeatTheCasino



I like the "relative" part but maybe the rest of the discussion should be posted before one comes to any conclusion as i think its relative and just like magic here it is.

ECD,

Thanks for your reply.

Believe it or not however, from what I have seen in the past year this casino is still making lots of money from their baccarat tables.

I see people going busted at a brisk pace.

Lots of people go in there with a $1,000 bank roll trying to make $10,000 in one day.
As most of us know this is a very poor approach!
The more you try to win in one day, the more likely you will go busted that day.
Go for small to medium wins and string them together over several days.
And Limit your losses!
This is the correct way to beat a casino.
Winning is done in the long run not the short run!

Most of my Asian buddies have fallen in love with Banker.
So when Banker is not running, they keep on betting banker!
And then suddenly here comes Player with all those naturals, while standing on 6 and 7...

Gotta learn to bet both sides of the aisle!

Lucky999

As I said earlier the non-random cards have been confirmed in the game of blackjack. It is quite possible that the same applies to baccarat. I think everyone agrees that roulette is purely random; it may appear to produce similar patterns (zig-zag, streak etc.), but the question is does it do so to the same degree as baccarat.

I think the physical processes in a baccarat game are quite different from the physical processes in a roulette game. Cards are flat pieces of cardboard that stack neatly. In some games the cards get into a rut and you have to adopt truly extreme shuffling practices to get the cards to be playable again. I think it takes quite a lot of shuffling to get the cards anywhere close to "random".

Originally Posted by hebrain

Well I don't know too much about trends in Bacarrat, but I do know that in the game of Blackjack there are trends, and that this shows up in computer simulations which properly model card pickups and dealer shuffle. We know a lot about the shuffles used in Blackjack, and we know that the processes acting on the cards create order, and that the shuffle is not sufficient to disrupt that order.

I would not be at all surprised if the same applied to Baccarrat.

hebrain,

You try to write a lot, i think intentionally trying to whip "something" up. But NOTHING IS GOING TO MEAN ANYTHING HERE W/O PROOF pulled off the web, or a logical and grounded argument.

Here's a link to some ASM-information on this forum... Baccarat Continuous Shuffle Machines in Macau . As for computer-simulations, that's another matter left to those with, and willing to put forth, their qualifications. And as for all the other stuff you "touched upon", you'll have to fill that in for yourself.

Come on, why don't you NEW guys read the available threads here first? And like i keep reminding Ellis, as soon as you have a new argument about the game, itself. No one is going to "spoon feed" youze here. (You'll have to go to BTC for that.)

Originally Posted by Ellis

But of course we all know that Baccarat is completely random. Shuffles are not manipulative and there are no table trends. Sure we do.

More "scare' tactics. Otherwise he would've actually wrote something concrete.

(Like, why would the casinos try to "cheat" us any more now (than by the house-edge), and by such costly hardware, and human-intensive measures? Especially when taking out the randomness would make the game highly-predictable. And the bets usually average out anyway.

Why not build a "special" shoe which could locate and bring computer-chipped cards to the front?

And wouldn't any other "casino orchestration" be sophistocated enough by now to anticipate any such players' "defences"? Why bother second guessing then... just play opposite (the) bigger bets. But there again, Ellis would rather delete the thread than discuss it properly.)

Originally Posted by thebaccaratkid

Have you been drinking again Ellis, your answers are getting more garbled...

thebaccaratkid,

Ellis made the final mistake of his pathetic kung-fu, master-uncle "career" by just appearing here.

Hey, i read the other day, on the GG, that the useless idea of "net betting" wasn't even Ellis'.