BTW takethe win, while no one in the game counts faster than I do (I can count a deck down in 13 seconds flat and tell you if the card you removed was Hi, Lo, or Neutral), I don't count. I strictly play NBJ. I started with NBJ and averaged about $70,000 a month in current dollars playing AC full time. Then I tried card counting and lost $40,000 a month for three months in spite of my speed and total knowledge of card counting. Now I may not be the sharpest tool in the box but even I knew that there was something very wrong with that picture. I went right back to NBJ and right back to $70,000 a month.
Just to give you an idea here's a post I answered today on my
BJ forum.
Re: Machines cannot beat me
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JackyWing Hello All,
I played a table where i lost significant amount of money, i was not able to guess any of the cards, there was a pattern but i was not able to guess it, to my opinion there is hi following hi, low following low & hi following low at the same time.
hi-lo was a disaster, had low cards after the real count was +12 (twice).
lost 2 rounds with my 21 because the dealer has a 21 :S.
What is really stunning is how come around 80 % of the 4's are followed by 7's then followed by 10's ? same thing for the 2's 9's and 10's ...
Is there anyway to predict the behavior of the one2six machine? there is definitely an algorithm, I saw the inside of the one2six machine there is around 50 slots for cards, all you need is a scanner and you can then draw the algorithm you wish.
how can one predict the first card?
Hi Jacjy, excellent post.
First, while there were other signs, on top of a bad shoe, when a dealer pushes your 21 twice in a row it is passed time to leave this table. You definitely over stayed your welcome. Whenever you don't feel comfortable with 19 its time to leave. Don't challenge a tough table. The object is to find an easy table.
Second, stop counting! Not only is it useless in the shoe game. it prevents you from monitoring the important things in the game because you were too busy counting.
The 4 thing was a freak of that game but 10,s often follow 7's. But 10's follow 2's so frequently that you are best off to regard a 2 as a 10.
You didn't give me enough information to be sure but it sounds like highs were following highs about equally to lows following highs. That is random cards. In random cards your best position, by far, is third base because at third your cards are most like the dealer's. Play a 3 bet (never more) progression from 3rd. Start low like 1,1,2. Play basic strategy except only double on your very best double hands like 11 vs 6. Note how often you are
losing 3 hands in a row. If its more than once a shoe leave that table. But if all goes well QUICKLY advance your prog to 123, then 134 and if all is still going well, 146.
Now, if the cards are clumped: You will know because you'll see high counts in both directions. But you can tell quickly
W/O counting because highs will be following highs a lot more than lows are following highs.
In clumped cards play first base. Do not bet a prog. Advantage bet. You've got a lo bet and a hi bet. 1,2 will usually do the trick. Watch the last cards dealt in the prior round. When they are mostly lo bet your small bet. When they are high bet your high bet. You are betting on a first card ten. Don't play with more than 3 players. Head to head is best.
If you are doing well predicting your first card tens, also start insurring against dealer Aces whenever the third base players 2nd card is a ten. You'll win more than half and they pay 2 to 1.
OK, that's a little taste of NBJ. There is a whole lot more to learn whenever you've got $500 to spare.
Meanwhile Rule #1 is NEVER stay in a losing game.
Good luck from Ellis!
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BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com