Thread: A slow progression I've used with success

I designed this system with the following premises
1. I shouldn't try to win back my money in a single turn
2. I don't go to the casino just to win, I also want to play (though hitting my target early is a nice treat)
3. Set a target that is about 20%-30% of the buy in, greed is a killer

Anyone trying this can use any bet selection method they choose, or bet the same side each turn, or bet once every 10 turns if they like.

I simply play 1 unit for 11 turns.
If after 11 turns I am up I pocket the profits and start again.
If I am down I play 2 units until a)I have a profit, b)I complete 11 turns

I continue to raise by 1 unit every 11 turns until a profit is made or the shoe ends.

The goal is 1 unit per subset. The buyin is 80 x table min.

Designed in the spirit of "Oscar's Grind". I make no promises but I've never lost all my money doing this.
I have had extended loosing streaks that no amount of money could overcome, though profits pocketed early have prevented total loss.
I've reached my profit target many times.

All comments welcome good, bad, or ugly

Originally Posted by gamblinggrant

I designed this system with the following premises
1. I shouldn't try to win back my money in a single turn
2. I don't go to the casino just to win, I also want to play (though hitting my target early is a nice treat)
3. Set a target that is about 20%-30% of the buy in, greed is a killer

Anyone trying this can use any bet selection method they choose, or bet the same side each turn, or bet once every 10 turns if they like.

I simply play 1 unit for 11 turns.
If after 11 turns I am up I pocket the profits and start again.
If I am down I play 2 units until a)I have a profit, b)I complete 11 turns

I continue to raise by 1 unit every 11 turns until a profit is made or the shoe ends.

The goal is 1 unit per subset. The buyin is 80 x table min.

Designed in the spirit of "Oscar's Grind". I make no promises but I've never lost all my money doing this.
I have had extended loosing streaks that no amount of money could overcome, though profits pocketed early have prevented total loss.
I've reached my profit target many times.

All comments welcome good, bad, or ugly

gamblinggrant,

There's a fellow over at the Gamblersglen with a similar MM in this thread: Gambler's Glen Message Boards : Baccarat Message Board : GR8's Progression .
He's been quite successful of late, using that combined with a couple of "triggers" based on a few repeating sequences of P and B -outcomes.

Today we went to the casino in Branford On.
My wife played her favorite game Pie Gow while I played Baccarat.

Today's session was a tortrous grind. 72 hands played, 33 wins, 39 losses. I had 9 consecutive losses followed later by 6 more. The most wins I could get together was 3.

Here it is for those interested.
LLL
W
L
WWW
L
WWW
LLLLLLLLL
WWW
L
WWW
L
WW
LL
WW
LLL
W
L
W
LL
W
LLL
WWW
L
W
LLLLLL
WW
L
WWW
L
W
LL
WW
L
W

I ended up 4 units ($100). The next 72 hands might have been better but I had enough.
We packed it in and went to watch the new Sandra Bullock movie.

I think that gr8 player's progression would have made more money than mine but he would have had to go deeper for it. Maybe next time I'll shorten my subset from 11 to 7 and see how it works out.

Today was much better than yesterday played 53 hands at Brantford lost 21, won 32 for a profit of 16 units. More aggressive progressions would have made more ie. D'lambert, martingale(there was only 4 successive losses)

After winning 5 units started raising a little with the wins. Lost the first hand but was not down again after that.

Won't be back again for a few days.

I thought I would not have time to go gambling for the rest of this week but I was able to go to Brantford again today.

I played 1 shoe. Of the 81 hands I played 61.
31 wins, 30 losses.
A losing streak after hand 65 turned my 8 unit profit into a 2 unit profit.

With my approach I don't like to play to last 1/3 of the shoe if I've already done well because I need time to recupe losses.

Originally Posted by gamblinggrant

I designed this system with the following premises
1. I shouldn't try to win back my money in a single turn
2. I don't go to the casino just to win, I also want to play (though hitting my target early is a nice treat)
3. Set a target that is about 20%-30% of the buy in, greed is a killer

Anyone trying this can use any bet selection method they choose, or bet the same side each turn, or bet once every 10 turns if they like.

I simply play 1 unit for 11 turns.
If after 11 turns I am up I pocket the profits and start again.
If I am down I play 2 units until a)I have a profit, b)I complete 11 turns

I continue to raise by 1 unit every 11 turns until a profit is made or the shoe ends.

The goal is 1 unit per subset. The buyin is 80 x table min.

Designed in the spirit of "Oscar's Grind". I make no promises but I've never lost all my money doing this.
I have had extended loosing streaks that no amount of money could overcome, though profits pocketed early have prevented total loss.
I've reached my profit target many times.

All comments welcome good, bad, or ugly

I like your method but I don't understand what you mean by (play 1 unit for 11 turns). What do you mean by 11 turns. Thank.

One more thing (1 unit per subset), I don't understand please explain thank.

Asiana,

Thanks for asking, let me use tonights results to explain. Total hands played 75, lost 33 and won 42 not counting ties. I played these hands consecutively but will show them groups by bet size.

1. betting 1 unit .......LLWLLLWWWWL...... result -1
2. betting 2 units......W stopped ..............= 2....... total +1
3. betting 1 unit...... WLLWWLLWWLL....... = -1....... total 0
4. betting 2 units..... LWLLLLWLWLW........ = -6....... total -6
5. betting 3 units..... WWLWW stopped..... = 3....... total 3
6. betting 1 unit...... LWWLWLWLLLW....... = -1 .......total 2
7. betting 2 units..... W stopped ..............= 2....... total 4
8. betting 1 unit ......WLWWLWWWWLW.... = 5....... total 9
9. betting 1 unit...... WLWLWWWWWWW... = 7....... total 16
10. betting 1 unit..... LWL....................... = -1...... total 15

Profit of 15 chips, $375

I like to play in groups of 11. If you try this you're free to use any grouping or "subset" size that you like. Use an odd number so that the sequence doesn't end with a tie (5 wins, 5 losses = 0).

In actual play you will pocket your profits as you get them so that you only start counting after a loss. For instance lines 8,9,and 10 are acutally just one long line of flat betting, each loss was immediately answered with a win.

Today's play was acutally the exact opposite of yesterday. I had early wins ending with a series of losses, up only two chips . I didn't publish the game. I only play live not on the internet.

grant, i'm interested in testing your method for 2 maybe 3 thousand hands on my software, can you detail how to bet, and on what, and when? sometimes on paper it is hard for me to grasp the concept...tell me how to bet it and i'll give it a good, fair run. if anyone else has something you want me to test, let me know.

Thank you very much for sharing your successful method. What is your capital or number of units of buy in (initial) & is there any subsequent buy in. Is there a cut or stop loss stage. Thank you, your valuable comment is treasured. Thank.

To: takethe win,
Would like to try betting on the last win, example if win is banker next round bet on banker. Using Gamblinggrant slow progression method. It's a simple method of betting in progression, it's anti-streak, because it follow the previous win. However B P B P it will lose. Can try & let me know the result. If you have system of betting & it's successful using the slow progreesion also please let me know. Thank.

gamblinggrant:

In your shoe dated 9-7-09 you made 4 units. My calculations show that you would have lost 4 units.
1. betting 1 unit --LLLWLWWWLWW -- result +1
2. betting 1 unit --WLLLLLLLLLW--result -7
3. betting 2 unit --WWLWWW--result +8
4. betting 1 unit --LWWLLWWLLLW--result -1
5. betting 2 unit --LWLLWLLLWWW--result -2
6. betting 3 unit --LWLLLLLLWWL-result -15
7. betting 4 unit --WWWLWLLWWLW-result +12

Net +1-7+8-1-2-15+12=-4 units
Did I make any mistakes? Thanks.

krapper 007,

I'm glad you took the time to analyze this. I was actually up 4 units $100, but I'd be happy to say that I was down if that was the case. I'm not trying to mislead or trick anyone, not selling anything.

According to my scorecard the sequence, as you have it, is right.
I think that I must have recorded it incorrectly. My highest wager that night was 4 units after the grouping of 6 losses, and at that level I had 1 extra win.

I'll try to be as accurate as possible when recording my games, considering I've begun showing them here.

Last night was a losing night. Down 29 chips.
It may take me 3 or 4 sessions to be up again

62 wins, 72 losses, highest wager was 4 units

1....LWWWLLLWWWL.........+1
1....LWWWLWLLLWL...........-1
2....LLLWLWWLLLW............-4
3....WWWLLLWLWWL.........+3
2....WLLWLWLWWWW........+6
1....LLWWLWWWWWWW....+5
1....LLLLLLWWLLW.............-5
2....WLWLWLLWLWL..........-2
3....LLLLWLLLLLL...............-27
4....WWLLWLWWLWW........+12
3....LLWLWLWWWWL.........+3
2....LLLWLLWLLLL..............-14

I like to play in groups of 11 while gr8 likes to play groups of 7.

I suspect however that if there was a perfect grouping it would probably be in the range of 19 -21. In a fair game most long streaks end in this range, though I've seen longer a couple of times.

Since this is the case, patterns of any type start to change, so what was working is not likely to continue.
ie. an "up with a win" approach begins to loose just as an "up with a loss" approach starts to win.

My way of betting tries to ride out these fluctations but I think that if a better system could be designed it would alternate between positive and negative progressions over about 20 turns.

Today wasn't bad though it started with 3 losses. It took another 14 turns before I could pocket a chip.

Using a "same as last approach", the longest chop was 4 while there was a run of 5 bankers and two runs of 4 players.

I ended up 16 units the most that I bet was 2 chips.
Left the score card on the table so I can't show how it played out.

grant, it seems like you're on to something, however you need several thousand hands to really know...i cant get anyone to try this software or least they haven't reported back their opinion...in all honesty, the reason i came to this forum in the first place was self serving, i wanted to see if anyone else used this, over the years, ive looked for these forums, never found 'em, i'd look, then maybe not look again for a year or two all the time. the only reason was to get some feedback on the software...i've got 11 years and somewhere close to 3 maybe 4 million hands invested, i'm tellin' ya, the thing is beautiful to use, but i don't know if it's 100% accurate...playing your method only once, i had to go to a 10 bet and quit as it seemed impossible to ever recover, but that was using this software...try it will you? download the free edition on the left side of this page, if you don't like it, then delete, but give it a try first
Baccarat System for a PROVEN Baccarat Strategy - Free Game

dadgumit, i meant to say the right side, don't download the pro, or the gold or the predictor, download the win@baccarat free, it's on the top right side of the page.

takethewin,

I just downloaded the software and will try using it.

I didn't say that I never loose with my system but I do make fairly consistant profits. Computer simulations can't account for the "human factor" which is essentially what makes any system work, on pure math the casino wins every time.
Knowing when to start, when to leave, and what type of pattern to follow are things that we can control.(ie. same as last, 2nd to last, different than last, etc.)

Many stock trading books in recent years are focusing on these types of factors. (ie. to let profits run while cutting losses short, not throwing good money after bad etc.) money mngt is the key not stock selection.

I'll be off to play in about an hour and will update this thread when I get back.

Don't wast your time on this, I bought this software a few years followed exactly what it said and could never win consistently, just slowly lose my bank roll. Quiet frankly it is a scam.


Also check other forums you will also find other forum members have come to the same conclusion.


I also fired up the online predictor the other day just to see if it still performed so poorly and guess what it does.


Don't get sucked in to this bogus software, unless you have time and money to wast.

Originally Posted by takethe win

grant, it seems like you're on to something, however you need several thousand hands to really know...i cant get anyone to try this software or least they haven't reported back their opinion...in all honesty, the reason i came to this forum in the first place was self serving, i wanted to see if anyone else used this, over the years, ive looked for these forums, never found 'em, i'd look, then maybe not look again for a year or two all the time. the only reason was to get some feedback on the software...i've got 11 years and somewhere close to 3 maybe 4 million hands invested, i'm tellin' ya, the thing is beautiful to use, but i don't know if it's 100% accurate...playing your method only once, i had to go to a 10 bet and quit as it seemed impossible to ever recover, but that was using this software...try it will you? download the free edition on the left side of this page, if you don't like it, then delete, but give it a try first
Baccarat System for a PROVEN Baccarat Strategy - Free Game

dadgumit, i meant to say the right side, don't download the pro, or the gold or the predictor, download the win@baccarat free, it's on the top right side of the page.

The software is corrupted to make his system win. It leaves out his losing patterns which in the real world will occur at their normal mathematical frequency. So its not something you want to rely heavily on. I have to agree with malcop.

But take the win, you never replied to my choice of actor. I'm very interested in you opinion.

Originally Posted by gamblinggrant

takethewin,

I just downloaded the software and will try using it.

I didn't say that I never loose with my system but I do make fairly consistant profits. Computer simulations can't account for the "human factor" which is essentially what makes any system work, on pure math the casino wins every time.
Knowing when to start, when to leave, and what type of pattern to follow are things that we can control.(ie. same as last, 2nd to last, different than last, etc.)

Many stock trading books in recent years are focusing on these types of factors. (ie. to let profits run while cutting losses short, not throwing good money after bad etc.) money mngt is the key not stock selection.

I'll be off to play in about an hour and will update this thread when I get back.

gamblinggrant,

Here's a reply of mine to radtek over at the GG about the best way to play only the P's and B's (derived from counting their permutations and/or card-combinations, as in my reply to "takethe win", but therefore very-watered down).

BTW, good going with what you're doing so far. I like your ideas, and theorizing.



radtek Posted: 16-Sep-09 04:20 Delete Edit

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I prefer to skip many times bets rather chasing my losing bets to recover . this will escalate the amount. for example if you play ftl and you only bet every appearance of 3 series and bet the opposite.

targeting small goals every shoe and you stop at 40 deals and move to other shoe after getting 2 wins or 3 . by doing this you can use every and kind MM positive or negative you like depending of your timing of the shoe you played.

************************************************** *******************

This echos my own conclusions about situational betting for baccarat. From the (definitive) counting data for P-B permutations and/or card-combinations, when a streak of 4 or 5, then begin betting opposite; likewise for the chops, except bet on a continuance. (Playing only by P-B of course, makes this only situational-betting advice. Very-watered down.)

For the novice, only infrequently betting small amounts is, again, the best MM-option. This has more to do with the expected (natural) variance of even near-random events likely crossing its mean curve several times before hopelessly dipping (if ever, over casual play.)

"Don't wast your time on this, I bought this software a few years followed exactly what it said and could never win consistently, just slowly lose my bank roll. Quiet frankly it is a scam."

thanks malcop for your reply, i want to make myself clear, i do not use any of the other software, nor do i want to use any of the systems offered, i am only concerned with the software that is offered for free, so that i can test any style of play i want, you can use it to practice any system or method you choose. i like and use it because of the functions, it plays quickly, i can play a whole shoe in less than 5 minutes, it has a good scorecard, it automatically takes out commission, it keeps track of your stats, easy to shuffle and on and on and on, but because, i can't beat it long term, i question it's validity, but i also don't beat the casino long term and i don't question their validity, in all reality, it probably is legit, i just haven't learned how to handle the losing streaks. do you have any other suggestions on a way to practice without resorting to pen and paper? some other software or download?, i've used bodog and some other java based games but they don't stack up to the lucky 9, i mean, i've got it right on my desktop, click it and play a shoe in less than 5 minutes

now i'm startin' to worry a little about gamblinggrant, he was suppose to check back in the 15th after he finished a session, haven't heard a thing from him since.

I tried the slow progression method on a cruise it didn't work well. The gain is little but the loss keep running. Gave up.

No new on gamblinggrant?? I wonder what happen.

Originally Posted by gamblinggrant

I designed this system with the following premises
1. I shouldn't try to win back my money in a single turn
2. I don't go to the casino just to win, I also want to play (though hitting my target early is a nice treat)
3. Set a target that is about 20%-30% of the buy in, greed is a killer

Anyone trying this can use any bet selection method they choose, or bet the same side each turn, or bet once every 10 turns if they like.

I simply play 1 unit for 11 turns.
If after 11 turns I am up I pocket the profits and start again.
If I am down I play 2 units until a)I have a profit, b)I complete 11 turns

I continue to raise by 1 unit every 11 turns until a profit is made or the shoe ends.

The goal is 1 unit per subset. The buyin is 80 x table min.

Designed in the spirit of "Oscar's Grind". I make no promises but I've never lost all my money doing this.
I have had extended loosing streaks that no amount of money could overcome, though profits pocketed early have prevented total loss.
I've reached my profit target many times.

All comments welcome good, bad, or ugly

Hi "grant."

The methodology is not in any way bad or wrong. It appears to play on the fact that - ultimately - random events that have specific odds - ie 50/50 - will balance as they should.

I have looked at this myself - using STANDARD DEVIATION odds. Standard deviation expectations are not too complicated to understand.

The only problem is that there are times when they deviate for longer than you can afford - or is usual.

IF - big IF - everything that was deviated reverted to normal 99.9999999% of the time within - say - 20 events, we would be laughing.

An example would be if we are playing P and B.

If we saw PPPPPPBPPPBP - after 12 events AND IF - the BIG IF - we KNOW that balances occur within 20 events, we would KNOW that the rest of the results would ALL be Bs!!!!

This is not the case.

The key is to find good standard deviation methods. Such as deviations of sets of 3 or 5 or something - just random options here.

Using P and B - we bet more, but we also see HUGE variations where we might see more Ps than Bs for a HUNDRED or more hands.

Something to consider - as I have done - is thus:

If we break down events into sets and you see PPPPP BBBBB
You have two sets of 5.

You have ONE SET of PPPPP and the next of BBBBB

This is very balanced - it is also a pattern that is very RARE.

Would we expect to see another B next thus breaking the PPPPP BBBBB from going to PPPPP again?

Would we expect to see a P because there are already 5 Bs?

I would SUGGEST - that we are less likely to see PPPPP BBBBB PPPPP than anything else.

That said, what would we do?

How about WAITING until the first or second new hand.

IF we now see PPPPP BBBBB PP - perhaps we should bet B for AT MOST 3 hands - or until we win one UNIT.

This is because to see PPPPP BBBBB PPPPP is very unlikely because this is a LONG pattern similar to PPPPP PPPPP PPPPP only it switches from P sets to B sets to P sets and so on.

I believe watching - waiting and then betting ALONG WITH a betting method - such as 1/2/1 or 1/2/3 or 1/2/4 and so on is necessary to win.

Hi All,


I would like to share the progression that I'm using at the moment.


It only has to levels and they are 1 or 2 units.


Bet 1 unit until you have a winner, then bet 2 units.


E1. W1 W2 (+3)
E2. W1 L2 W2 W2 (+3)
E3. W1 L2 W2 L2 W2 W2(+3)
E4. W1 L2 L2 (-3)
E5. W1 L2 W2 L2 W2 L2 L2 (-3)


Example E1 is quite straight forward you have a winner at 1 unit the bet 2 units and that wins with a profit of +3 units profit.


Example E2 you have your 1 unit win but lose the 2 unit bet, place another 2 unit bet, and that wins, place another 2 unit bet and that wins giving you +3 units profit.


Example E3 is just a variation on E2 where you keep betting 2 units until you have two back to back winners to get your +3 units profit(its not unusual to have a sequence like W1L2W2L2W2L2W2L2W2W2)


Example E4 & E5 after your 1 unit win you lose the two 2 unit bets either straight away or after a long drawn out WLWLWLWLWLWLWLL sequence, but no matter how long it goes on you still will only lose -3 units.


Win our lose you always revert to you 1 unit bet, what I like about this progression you are not tied into large stakes trying to recoup your losses in on bet.


I average about 8 units a shoe using this method. The most I have had so far is 18 units.


I session buy in of 20 to 30 units should be all that you would need with this method.


Let me know what you think good or bad.


Thanks


Malcop

hey malcop, i used your progression and played it with the dragon method, here's the stats... $5.00 unit...490 hands...win $81.50....turnover $2820.00...winning % 2.9%

i was up 40 units at one point, it was looking real good and then it just turned on me, but it still came out with about 16 net units for 6 shoes...i'll do another 1000 hands and report back...i'm anxious to try the up 1 on a loss down 1 on a win, in place of just the 2 bet, i'll stay with yours for at least 12 more shoes, then i'll switch to the other....but so far i like what i see!

Originally Posted by takethe win

hey malcop, i used your progression and played it with the dragon method, here's the stats... $5.00 unit...490 hands...win $81.50....turnover $2820.00...winning % 2.9%

i was up 40 units at one point, it was looking real good and then it just turned on me, but it still came out with about 16 net units for 6 shoes...i'll do another 1000 hands and report back...i'm anxious to try the up 1 on a loss down 1 on a win, in place of just the 2 bet, i'll stay with yours for at least 12 more shoes, then i'll switch to the other....but so far i like what i see!

Hi takethe win,

I'm glad you are find some success with it so far, mabey you need to implement some form of stop loss rules, to hang onto your profits, I have been thinking of aiming for a goal of say 5 units per shoe. I use this progression playing Blackjack, I use 30 units and aim for 10 units and then quit, that seems to be working out ok at the moment.

Thanks

malcop

well malcop, disaster struck, here's the stats...$5.00 unit...503 hands...lost $147.50...turnover $2745.00... losing % 5.4

won 15 units on the very first shoe, after that, couldn't buy a bet, this is where i wonder about the software i use, so typical, a nice win, then here comes the losing streak and there seems to be nothing you can do about it.

i was playing the dragon which you know is anti-streak, if i would have been able to "trigger" my bets into a streak mode, i would of cleaned up...hindsight is always 20/20...how could i've known?...there's got to be a way to combine streaks with chop!

Originally Posted by takethe win

well malcop, disaster struck, here's the stats...$5.00 unit...503 hands...lost $147.50...turnover $2745.00... losing % 5.4

won 15 units on the very first shoe, after that, couldn't buy a bet, this is where i wonder about the software i use, so typical, a nice win, then here comes the losing streak and there seems to be nothing you can do about it.

i was playing the dragon which you know is anti-streak, if i would have been able to "trigger" my bets into a streak mode, i would of cleaned up...hindsight is always 20/20...how could i've known?...there's got to be a way to combine streaks with chop!

Have you looked at Flat Bet Mini Play?

Originally Posted by takethe win

well malcop, disaster struck, here's the stats...$5.00 unit...503 hands...lost $147.50...turnover $2745.00... losing % 5.4

won 15 units on the very first shoe, after that, couldn't buy a bet, this is where i wonder about the software i use, so typical, a nice win, then here comes the losing streak and there seems to be nothing you can do about it.

i was playing the dragon which you know is anti-streak, if i would have been able to "trigger" my bets into a streak mode, i would of cleaned up...hindsight is always 20/20...how could i've known?...there's got to be a way to combine streaks with chop!

Hi takethe win,

I know you said that you are using the dragon system and it is based on betting opposit, and stop betting if you have three loser in a row, and only continue when you have one paper win on opposit.

But have you thought of just switching to betting same as last and keep betting same as last until you have a loser.

I know that sometimes if you play this way the next bet that wins is the opposit, but I have found looking back through my recorded shoes, that more times that not it works a treat.

If a long streak is going to happen I would rather be on it than just sitting theire waiting for it to end, and watching other players at the table clean up.

Have a look at some of your old shoes and get back to me with what you find.

Playing dragon this way has increased my net profits, and I hope it do the same for you.