Thread: pattern betting -

hi everyone, i just have some doubts in my mind, im just not sure if im thinking straight, hope u guys can give me some confirmation or shed some light

im having a pattern betting system in mind, not saying that it works...i duno about that yet

basically, i only bet on the next 3 decisions. as you know, the 3 decisions will always and must be 1 of the 8 below:
BBB
BBP
BPB
BPP
PPP
PPB
PBP
PBB

and as you also know, each of the pattern can only be "countered" by ONLY one of the remaining 7 patterns.

in another words, if i randomly choose any 1 pattern to bet on the next 3 decisions, the only way that i will lose all 3 bets is when the exact 'opposite pattern' comes out, other than that, nothing else can kill my 3 bets

hence, by doing so, the chance of me losing all 3 bets is 12.5% (or 1 out of 8).

yes i know it's betting on luck

-do let me know if i miss out anything up to here-

ok so lets say, there are 8 tables, i only play once at each table (is this the random-walk theory?), and by saying "play once", again, i mean i randomly choose a pattern (1 of the 8 patterns) and bet on it. this would mean that each "play" will consist of min betting 1 decision (i.e. i win the first bet) and max betting 3 decisions (i.e. i lose all 3 bets or i win on the 3rd bet)

as for bankroll, lets just say i have 7 units, with progressive betting of 1-2-4.

therefore, this would mean that i just need to win 7 times...then i can cover my bankroll (and leave if u want)

so...by looking purely at the math and numbers itself only, will this work in the long-run? it looks like it will work...but i know i must be missing something

yes indeed it's nothing special/unique, but just exploring, i think it can lead me to another idea thats all

thanks.

extremeb,

Good job on the math.

As you showed, one can then expect to win seven times for each loss (of three in a row). But... however one bets can not remove the commission/house-edge (on banker-wins/more player losses, respectively).

Your method needs only some "sprucing up". Egs, by adding some sort of bet-selection principles (based on biases instead of random patterns of P-B, W-L, etc); and not such an aggressive betting method, to give any bet-selection method a better chance to help out.

Lastly, you said, "Ok so lets say, there are 8 tables, i only play once at each table (is this the random-walk theory?)" At first, yesterday, i thought you were kidding. But just now i'm thinking, "What a novel way of relating that theory to real life." I wonder if there's not something more to that view of it.

extremeb,

I also run a similar, albeit longer, version of what you're setting up to do, only I run it out to either 7, 8, 9, or 10 decisions.

As my baccarat table cards have 10 vertical boxes, I've been using the previous 10 decisions to bet AGAINST.

It has been working rather well in live and online casinos but the online casinos (BetUS and RaceBook) seem to get to the 7th bet more often than I would statistically like to see. The live casino I go to works out much nicer with few wagers going past the 5th level at all.

With a minor escalation of the wagers, you can push this one pretty far and not really get killed.

The bottom line is basically I'm betting that the next ten decisions will not be the same as the previous ten decisions, in order. Ties are not recorded although I do make a note of it on the card (with a dot) for some future reference if needed in a future system.

AD

Originally Posted by ADulay

extremeb,

I also run a similar, albeit longer, version of what you're setting up to do, only I run it out to either 7, 8, 9, or 10 decisions.

As my baccarat table cards have 10 vertical boxes, I've been using the previous 10 decisions to bet AGAINST.

It has been working rather well in live and online casinos but the online casinos (BetUS and RaceBook) seem to get to the 7th bet more often than I would statistically like to see. The live casino I go to works out much nicer with few wagers going past the 5th level at all.

With a minor escalation of the wagers, you can push this one pretty far and not really get killed.

The bottom line is basically I'm betting that the next ten decisions will not be the same as the previous ten decisions, in order. Ties are not recorded although I do make a note of it on the card (with a dot) for some future reference if needed in a future system.

AD

hi AD,

thanks for replying my post

i must say up to 10 decisions, thats alot!!
and yes with that, u can push very far without getting kill

just wondering, how about your bettings? do you use progressive (1, 2, 4, 8, 16...)? or just flat betting? if you're using progressive then u must have a large capital/bankroll to cover 10 decisions ya?

just curious, i have heard a lot about online casino online betting but neva done so, is it safe? are they trustworthy? wont they cheat?

thanks.

extremeb,

Well, after much trial and error (of course) and deciding on what is a "good" amount to win in 100 hands, I came up with the following progression, which can be stopped pretty much anywhere that you're comfortable with.

1-1-1-1-2-5-10-25-50-100-200

You can see that on my usual $10 table, the 8th level is a $250 bet, but it rarely (like twice) comes up in the last 4 months. The table limits are $10-$2500 at my normal place of play, so the betting is way inside the limits.

I originally had run 1-1-2-3-5- and up and variations of it and when it was winning, it won more than the current set up, but it got real expensive real fast if the cards weren't falling for you.

With the current progression, I plan on a +5 minimum for each 100 hands with the actuals coming out to anywhere from +4 to +21 (nice day for sure).

This does give you a lot of time at the table (if you're into comps) and allows you to get in several shoes at a time without tying up a lot of money, especially if you just sit there and flat bet it or run the string out to 7 or so.

Had a lucky streak today. Used the wife's $30 free play to make $50 on some BlackJack video machines and then took that $50 over to flat bet baccarat for awhile. I was going to finish the shoe or win $100, whichever came first.

Watched 10 hands. Bet the next 16 and the shoe ended. Made $60 net from the table. All flat beting that time.

AD

Originally Posted by extremeb

just curious, i have heard a lot about online casino online betting but neva done so, is it safe? are they trustworthy? wont they cheat?

Sorry, forgot to answer that question....

I'm not a big fan of the online casinos scene but there are a few that I like to play on although I can't actually bet them! That DublinNet place has a "live" dealer hooked up and you can make the bets there in real time with a live dealer. Too bad I can't open a money account there as I would probably play it a lot.

Currently when I really need a money fix for baccarat, I'll use BetUS or RaceBook's online casinos but only on the $1 tables. I'm sure there are many others that are legitimate.

I did test both of these accounts online with getting money sent to me from winnings. Both of them were fast and the RaceBook account sent the money via FedEx the next day! I was expecting it to show up in the mail about two weeks from my request. That was a nice touch for sure.

Evidently there are also online casinos that charge you money to get your payments out??? What the hell is that all about?? That was one of the things I checked first before making any deposits. If I have to pay (except for maybe emergency overnight service or something) then I don't think I want my money sitting there.

Enough of this rambling on. I play online casinos from time to time when I need a real money test instead of playing for free but obviously much prefer a real casino with real cards. Notice I didn't say any humans. I've seen the automated baccarat machines in Macau and they are not only 100% accurate but fascinating to watch with the mechanical precision of the Borg!! A real masterpiece!

AD

Some Baccarat at some casino have the Dragon bet (40:1) then they don't collect house commission 5%. It's a really good deal no commission

Hi ADulay, I'm not sure I understand how you bet your progession.

1-1-1-1-2-5-10-25-50 etc. so you bet opposite the last 10 decisions for one win only? If you lose the 1st 3 bets and win the 3rd, you're down 2 units. Do you then start the progression over betting against a new series of 10 decisions? If you keep losing the 1st few bets before a win you'll start falling too far behind with this progression it seems.

thanks for sharing your method.

Bluegrass,

The reason for that extended progression of 1-1-1-1 is to attempt to keep the progression small enough, long enough to make it work for several shoes.

One of the problems with almost everyone's thinking on this is that "I have to get it all back at once". Obviously this doesn't work or we'd see way more winners at the casino than losers.

Yes, some of the wins recoup much of the loss, but not all. This is correct. However, when making larger bets, they do overcome some of the smaller losses and the idea is to NOT have to make more than perhaps one large wager per shoe.

It's just an idea and it has been working for a good amount of time so far. Nothing spectacular like a +45 shoe or anything like that but any shoe that produces a profit, is good enough for me.

Today I played 170 hands at the real casino and came out +7.5 after commissions. I'll take that every day.

Anyway, to answer the original question, yes, some of the wagers do NOT return all of the losses.

AD

Hey Guys, I think you are missing the REAL ISSUE here, the "Betting Strategy" should be carefully matched with the "Playing Strategy", that is the KEY! If your Playing Strategy gives on average a streak of 2.2 losses between wins then you can tailor a Betting Method for that, on the other hand if your Playing Strategy averages 2.5 losses between wins, then you would need something entirely different. Does that make any sense to you?

Grab the Gold