Thread: Standard deviations

I will be working on standard deviations involving 3 and 2 event situations.

By utilizing standard deviations - and knowing the numbers involved - we should be able to choose a point where results that are supposed to happen 12.5% of the time and/or 25% of the time have happened too often to maintain their excesses.

An example would be if we saw PPPPPPPPP

If we break this down to sets of 3, we have PPP PPP PPP.

Each of these have an expectation to occur ONCE every 8 sets of 3. For this example to occur 3 times in 3 sets, we are watching something that should not happen - and or continue.

We can calculate standard deviations with a greater number of sets - to be more accurate.

Such an event - PPP - will occur between 0 and 2 times out of 8 - 68.2% of the time. It will occur between 0 and 3 times 95.4% of the time and it will occur between 0 and 4 times 99.7% of the time.

If it were to occur 5 times in 8 sets of 3, we would be way outside the expected occurence - beyond the third standard deviation. We would NOT expect to see any more such events for another 12 such sets at least. If after 21 such sets, we are still at 5 such sets, we are now back to the 1st standard deviation - but still higher than the expected number of 3 such occurences.

This may be confusing. I'll leave it with you to think about and prepare for further study.

eirescott

An interesting study - just remember that the cards have no memory.

Odds are odds. Probabilities are mathematical calculations based on odds. "Card memory" or "dice memory" or "coin memory" or "ball memory" are terms that may confuse the issue.

The FACT that expected and deviation results are derived from proven mathematical formulae really is FACT.

We KNOW that 99.7% of the time, a series of results will occur. Period.

Using this information to our advantage is somewhat more difficult. I have addressed this elsewhere.

Knowing that something will occur 99.7% of the time is useful in one sense, and not so useful in another sense.

We could essentially arrive at a point where something occurs OUTSIDE of this mathematically correct window. It could be that the one time we bet, that this deviation does NOT correct itself in the next 8 or 10 or 2 or 12 events. It could take 100 events to move back to within the expected range of results.

It is MORE LIKELY to occur sooner than later, but there is no guarantee.

I am very interested in standard deviation and variance. I think the problem is we have to wait for a long time for it to occur. From the other site they are tracking singles over series. If we can look it from different angles we might have more betting chances.

I am not a math guy, if you can post how to compute sd for 2 and 3 events it will be a great help.

Thanks!