Thread: Odds of matching shoes

Ignoring ties, what do you suppose the odds of a baccarat shoe matching the next shoe?

Let's use 8 decks and suppose there are 70 P or B outcomes plus any ties.

Ignore the ties, we have 70 Ps or Bs.

We can have a shoe that is ALL Ps. We can have a shoe that is ALL Bs.

These are the two extremes. These two extremes plus all inbetween gives us more than ONE SEXTILLION possible outcomes.

This is 1 followed by 21 zeroes.
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Which is like a million million billion possible outcomes.

Do you think you will ever see two shoes the same?

EIRESCOTT,

Last week I saw 7 by 7 by 7, first time in 20 years. In all my years of playing craps, I have seen 8 passes in a row once, and I have seen four MONSTER ROLLS, but, there was always a 2,3, or 12 to intervene somewhere.
The only sure thing there IS according to all the TESTERS I HAVE seen, and all the DATA I have is that there always seems to be MORE SINGLES compared to the rest of the groups put together. By MORE, I mean if you ONLY bet against EVERY SINGLE that POPPED up you would have more money at the end of SOME period OF TIME. It works out to about 1 to 1 1/2 units per hour.

I know of NO ONE including myself who plays like this. But it seems to be the only occurrence THAT I KNOW OF, THAT produces LONG TERM WINNING, WITH A MECHANICAL APPLICATION.

To ANSWER your question I would think you HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HITTING THE LOTTERY THAN SEEING TWO SHOES REPEATING THEMSELVES.


ALL SYTEMS WORK SOME OF THE TIME,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

no system works all of the time.........................



R/S

Do you mean you saw 7 rolled three times in a row at craps?

The odds of that are not too great, 1 in 216.

I have worked on a method of winning craps. It is okay - but a little tedious.

It is simple and it just goes to show why many people lose playing this game.

I have "crunched" tens-of-thousands of numbers representing craps rolls and have found only once 4 sevens in a row. I have seen a few 3s this way and a fair number of twos.

One needs to consider 6/8.

Having a six OR an 8 after a 7 is quite likely. I have seen 7 sevens - scattered occurences - with NO 6 or 8. It is rare, but it has happened. After such an event, either right away or before another 2 or 3 sevens, you will see a whack of 6s and/or 8s.

You will have likely seen a fair number of 6s and/or 8s before such a run of sevens.

Most players leave their place bets out. If you have done calculations such as I have done, you will see that it is not too often that you see 3 or 4 6s and/or 8s following a seven.

The plan should be to wait for a seven - and at times 2 sevens - before a 6 or 8 shows. Bet the 6 AND 8 UNTIL ONE HITS and then GET THE HELL OFF THE BOARD until another 7.

I also noticed that - like roulette but better - there are 3 very even sets of occurrences with craps.

I haven't decided if anything could be done with this - but take a look.

First the expected number of occurrences of each number in 36 rolls.

02 - 1
03 - 2
04 - 3
05 - 4
06 - 5
07 - 6
08 - 5
09 - 4
10 - 3
11 - 2
12 - 1

Group A: 2 - 3 - 7 - 11 - 12 - we have 12 expected events total in 36
Group B: 4 - 5 - 6 - we have 12 expected events total in 36
Group C: 8 - 9 - 10 - again we have 12 expected events total in 36

Doesn't this look like dozens or columns in roulette WITHOUT THE zeroes?

So if we take a look at Group 1 2 and 3 seperately and watch how often they appear. We may have something like this:

1 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 1

We could look for a group appearing 2 or 3 times in a row - or sets of groups appearing - and bet accordingly.

I don't want to get into the best time to bet because situation here. But I think if you were to get some results you WILL find something interesting about when to bet.

A bet I thought about some time ago is simple but rarely utilized. I later read it is a MENSA concept.

Whatever. I thougt of it myself. Wait for a 7 and bet 5 6 8 ON and the field.

You need to bet 5 on the field, 5 on 5 and 6 on 6 and 8.

You could bet 5 on the field and 10 on 5 and 12 on 6 and 8 so you have at least 5 units won.

The problem is clearly another 7. SOooo, you could wait and wait for 2 consecutive 7s and do this ONCE and clear-out.

You could wait for 2 consecutive 7s and bet even larger for a one time deal and leave the casino type of thing. Or wait for that rare 3rd seven in a row...

Again - number-crunching will show you how often this happens and/or works.

The "problem" is that people usually gamble to have fun. I gamble to win money.

EIRESCOTT,

I should have been more clear, I was playing ec's on roulette I saw 7 red, followed by 7 black, followed by 7 red. Thats what I meant by 7 by 7 by 7. Three 7's in a row in craps is a somewhat common occurrence. To be honest with you I cant go a two days usually, without seeing it at least once. But, then again that falls into 1 in 216. I have a method I lean on 80% of the time at CRAPS, IF you play craps alot I can email it to you.




R/S

I just got these numbers a second ago from RANDOM.ORG - True Random Number Service.

I often use this site. It generates random numbers correctly using TRUELY random "atmospheric noise."

I ask for numbers from 1 to 6. They run from left to right across the rows.

I then add each pair. 2+2 is the first pair to get 4. 5+4 is the second pair which is 9 and so on. Below these numbers are my calculations for a "pseudo-craps" game of 108 rolls (216 pairs)

2 2 5 4 5 5 1 5 6 1 3 5
6 3 3 2 3 4 2 6 5 2 2 5
6 5 6 1 6 2 4 5 4 3 4 4
1 6 4 6 3 2 6 6 4 3 5 5
1 1 6 1 3 6 2 3 5 4 4 4
4 1 2 2 4 5 6 5 1 5 6 3
4 6 3 2 1 3 1 3 5 3 6 6
2 4 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 2 5 5
6 4 6 5 1 6 1 3 6 3 4 3
4 6 1 4 3 2 6 3 5 5 5 6
6 4 2 4 4 1 5 4 6 2 6 1
6 5 2 4 1 4 5 6 3 5 1 2
3 2 4 5 6 5 6 2 1 2 6 4
5 1 5 3 6 3 1 3 2 2 3 1
2 6 5 6 4 4 4 2 5 1 5 4
5 5 5 5 6 2 5 4 5 4 1 1
2 5 3 3 2 3 3 1 6 3 3 1
1 4 6 2 2 3 5 5 1 1 2 6

4--9--10--6--7--8
9--5--7--8--7--7
11--7--8--9--7--8
7--10--5--12--7--10
2--7--9--5--9--8
5--4--9--11--6--9
10--5--4--4--8--12
6--11--11--10--6--10
10--11--7--4--9--7
10--5--5--9--10--11
10--6--5--9--8--7
11--6--5--11--8--3
5--9--11--8--3--10
6--8--9--4--4--4
8--11--8--6--6--9
10--10--8--9--9--2
7--6--5--4--9--4
5--8--5--10--2--8

If more gamblers looked at results like this over and over and over again, they might actually see why they lose all their place bets so often.

They might see WHEN it is USUALLY best to bet.

Here is what happened for example with 6s 7s 8s.

STARTING WITH THE FIRST 7. there was ONE 6 OR 8
after the next 7, there was ONE 6 OR 8.
Here is how it went down. First number is the number of sevens before a 6 OR 8. The next number is the number of 6s OR 8s before the next 7;

1-1,1-1,3-1,1-1,3-5,2-2,1-9....

The last 7 was followed by 9 6s or 8s and then the record stopped.

But do you see that we would have lost a fair number of 6s and 8s bets if they were left out.

We can also notice that after the count where there were 5 sevens and only 3 6s OR 8s, it got better soon after - but not too soon!

We had to wait until there were 9 sevens and only 4 6s OR 8s until this lopsided count changed and we had 5 6s or 8s! This is what gamblers MUST KNOW.

A 2:1, seven : 6/8 count MIGHT often net a good number of 6s and 8s.

Maybe after such a count we can GO FOR 3 wins of 6s and/or 8s???

Don't gamble, play to win. Do some research.

EIRESCOTT,

Thats why I always come down after I hit a 6 or 8.




R/S

Originally Posted by eirescott

Ignoring ties, what do you suppose the odds of a baccarat shoe matching the next shoe?

Let's use 8 decks and suppose there are 70 P or B outcomes plus any ties.

Ignore the ties, we have 70 Ps or Bs.

We can have a shoe that is ALL Ps. We can have a shoe that is ALL Bs.

These are the two extremes. These two extremes plus all inbetween gives us more than ONE SEXTILLION possible outcomes.

This is 1 followed by 21 zeroes.
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Which is like a million million billion possible outcomes.

Do you think you will ever see two shoes the same?

I have been working on a system that uses the previous shoe. I have yet to see 2 shoes in a row that are exactly the same, however I have come across many shoes that are similar. By similar I mean shoe B will somewhat be like shoe A but not exactly the same. I doubt that I will ever see 2 shoes that are the same but maybe it is possible.

Originally Posted by John1234

I have been working on a system that uses the previous shoe. I have yet to see 2 shoes in a row that are exactly the same, however I have come across many shoes that are similar. By similar I mean shoe B will somewhat be like shoe A but not exactly the same. I doubt that I will ever see 2 shoes that are the same but maybe it is possible.

I have a system such as you are working on. Be sure to NOT do simple bets like "the first bet of the last shoe will be different than - or the same as - the first bet of the last shoe."

Stay away from the old failures like "different from the second last" and so on.

I'll give you a hint. Compare GROUPS of decisions from the last shoe to this shoe.

Thanks for the advice. I know that a few people are working a system just like you mentioned that compare groups. It seems as though they have been having success with it. And I also agree that it is best to look at groups. However I do exactly what you say not to do but I have come up with a twist to make it a bit successful.

At first I would win and lose some shoes but then I recently came up with a method of tracking which has improved my strike rate and I have not lost a shoe yet. The tracking method keeps track of when you should bet for the results to be the same and when to bet for the results to be different. I still need to do a lot more testing though. As of now I am +120 units of live play.

Originally Posted by John1234

At first I would win and lose some shoes but then I recently came up with a method of tracking which has improved my strike rate and I have not lost a shoe yet. The tracking method keeps track of when you should bet for the results to be the same and when to bet for the results to be different. I still need to do a lot more testing though. As of now I am +120 units of live play.

Hey John, how has your method of play and tracking been for you so far? Care to share more?