Thread: A simple strategy, from the inside out

I have been in the "biz" for about 10 years now and have crunched numbers on nearly every table game. A few friends and I have developed conservative strategies for Craps($25/hour), Roulette($22-44/hour), and FINALLY Baccarat($25-100/per shoe)! These are all minimum bets of course.

I never have posted in a forum before, but after supervising Baccarat for nearly 30 hours a week, and speaking with winning players, I decided to post this to help fellow "advantage players" win! And maybe get some suggestions to help improve.

First off, let me say, that systems don't work. Most of you probably understand why and agree (house edge,gambler's fallacy, martingale...booo!). However, because Baccarat is NOT random, I repeat, NOT random, there is a way to overcome the house edge.

So...most of you have seen the scorecards provided by casinos to Baccarat players. Most people are skeptical of this, and consider anything provided by the casino can only assure complete failure...(roulette scoreboard, etc.)

But take a closer look. My friends and I have gathered nearly 1000 of these scorecards, and here's what we found.

Horizontally, when players mark "player" or "banker" in the 1st row, if it repeats, they put the corresponding "p" or "b" in the 2nd row, 3 x's in a row, etc.

Let's say the "p" run when 4 x's in a row and then it jumps to "b". Then a "b" is put into the 1st row. The scorecard now shows, 4 "p"'s going down, and 1 "b" in the first row.

So now we counted...there is usually around 80 decisions per shoe. The first row will have around 40 entries, the 2nd row will have around 20, the 3rd row will have around 10, the fourth row will have around 5, the 5th row will have around 3, and six or more in a row will happen around 1 to 2 times per shoe. This occured on nearly every scorecard we counted! Please check this out for yourself too. After the shoe is finished, many players throw these cards away. Simply pick it up and count, it's kinda amazing once you discover this.

So how do we profit?

1. This strategy that we use is very conservative and our goal is to only be 4 units ahead at the end of the shoe. Be PATIENT!! $25/unit=$100/per shoe. 1 Shoe takes approximately 1 hour or less depending on the players. That's $100/hour!

2. If you're "home" casino offers "no commission" baccarat, because they have a "Dragon" bonus. That's where you want to be. Yes, when a banker wins with six you get paid 1 to 2, but that's why we stop at +4 units.

3. Wait for 2 "p"'s in a row or 2 "b"'s in a row, and bet one unit that it will jump.

4. If you win, congrats, you're up one unit. If you lose, sorry, you're down one unit...lol. Wait for the 2 x's in a row to occur again, and bet 1 unit that it will jump. Do not press, negative or positive, only flat bet.

5. Now I know that this almost sounds ridiculous, but look at the scorecard. 2 x's in a row occurs around 20 times and 3 x's in a row occurs around 10 x's. What this means is you should win 20 and lose 10, which would ideally put you up 10 units! However, because of the mathmatics of Baccarat (I won't put you through the numbers), you don't need to win 20 and lose 10, you only need to win 4! This offsets the sometimes "shaky" shoes.

6. When you're up 4 units...LEAVE. You may be tempted to play, but if you are a gambler then you understand you will be up 50% of the time and down %50 of the time, so 'quitting while your ahead' is the safe play.

Look, I know this may have been explained better or may be an old strategy, but just in case, I have put this out there just to help. Really, I don't want any credit, I just want people, to win...including me lol!

So good luck, before you play, if you want to check out other scorecards...PLEASE DO! Count the entries, you may find a few shoes that go "against" the grain. Those shoes, you may or may not yield your 4 units, maybe only 1, but hey that's better than nothing.

Please comment if there's anything you would like to add. Good Luck!

Mike

Great post ...... I experimented with something like this when i traded stocks....
its called point and figure charting and has been around since the 1940's and I tried to apply it to baccarat a few months ago but didnt have to time to do an in depth analysis.

Im not sure how you set up your score card...maybe you can type about 10 or 12 P and B results and show how you marked your score card.

Thanx for the post.

Tom

Mike

One other comment...it seems that you are just betting P if two B's come out in a row or betting B if two P's come out in a row. Is that right?

If so, I dont think you need a special charting scorecard....just wait for two B's or two P's to come out and then bet opposite.

Im not sure if you can make a long term profit just betting against double P's or double B's

Tom

Yes you are right. We are betting against 3 x's in a row.

3 players or 3 bankers only occur around 10 times/shoe. 2 players/bankers occurs around 20 times/shoe. That is why u should win 20 & lose 10.

Longterm this rule will apply. Out of 80 shoes, we encountered 7 shoes that resulted in a loss. With a max loss of 3 units per losing shoe.

The only reason to track is so that you can see the results. I suggest looking over other peoples completed scorecards to see how many units you would've won from that shoe.

It has worked for us so far, it is simple, but the hard part is patients. Other players may be winning more than you, but they will also lose a lot more!

Thanks for the replies!

if...
2s is 20
3s is 10
4s is 5 and so on...

2 = 3 + 4 + 5 and so on...

so you don't have any advantage on betting against 2s

Sorry I wasn't more specific. We are ONLY betting 2 doesn't go 3. NOT 3 doesn't go 4, nor 4 doesn't go 5, etc.

When it goes 3, which it will, do not bet again until it jumps and goes 2 in a row. So even if a player or banker runs 10 times in a row, you have only lost 1 unit.

Based on our findings a shoe will have 2 in a row only-about 20 times. 3 in a row ONLY- 10 times. Therefore you should win 20 and lose 10. But because of shoe variations we stop at+4 units per shoe.

I hope this explained a little better about this strategy. Remember once a player/banker repeats to 2, you are only making 1 bet, until it jumps and repeats 2 in a row again.

Hi Pitboss,

Interesting strategy! I'm going to try it tomorrow in a live Casino. May be using a moderate progressive method when I become confident on it.

Anyway, are you winning with this strategy in long term?

Hi! I don't get it or maybe I'm just stupid..

You said that the 2:s occurs about 20 times, but I can't really agree. I've been counting on several shoe's and yes, the second row is filled about 20 times, but these rows includes the 3s, 4s, 5s etc.
It's pretty hard to find shoes where just the 2:s are more than the 3s,4s,5s..

Hope you'll understand what I mean.

Maybe I misunderstood the bet selection?

I went to the casino in my area yesterday. I kept walking around and quite a lot of Baccarat tables I have approached to. I looked at the result record in each table. Not much luck I have. The number of times of 2 rows occurred often equal or less one or two times than the 3 rows or above.

I did found a few good tables that win 1 to 2 chips at the end of the shoe. But there are bad shoes as well. The worse I encountered was lose more than 5 chips.

hello, pitboss
You did notice that every single result happens twice as often as every double on the average, every double happens twice as often as every triple on the average, and so on. However I regret to inform you tha your strategy will not work, because betting after two B's or P's also means that you are betting against all 4's 5's 6's and longer sequences, whether you realize it or not. Yes, you will win on occasion, but more often than not you'll be losing. It was very observant of you to notice this, but believe me, this is not a winning method. If it were that easy, casinos would either changed the rules or went out of business.

I much love roulette I beg the boss to please print the roulette system he mentions 22/40 saw it in oregional post Thanks Colin