An Aussie friend, just back from 7 days in Macau, says Baccarat is the dominant game there. ALL Macau baccarat is dealt from CSMs.

Sorry for being slow, what does the term CSM's mean?

Continuous Shuffle Machine, a deadly, compact, round shaped thing that is on the nose to any AP. (Advantage Player of the type who count cards.) The dreaded things are continually shuffling the 6 or 8 decks, including the discards, and so it renders card counting futile.

Added CSM to the acronym section of the forum.

This means if you hover over any abbreviation like CSM, the full term will show up (Continuous Shuffle Machine). You'll know the full term is available when you see the dotted lines under an abbreviation.

I also edited the title of the post to make the distinction, hope you don't mind Katweezel

So I learned that Baccarat is the dominant game in Macau, and elsewhere throughout Asia. I read where Macau has displaced Las Vegas as the world's #1 gambling capital, in terms of the casinos' win figure. All baccarat in Macau is dealt from a CSM. Now I know why the Asian baccarat gamblers are losing so much money.

Has anyone heard of a baccarat system that shows a profit against a CSM? Whoever comes up with that is either a genius or a wizard.

K,

Are there any baccarat-related tips from the far-more developed world of blackjack?

I think bj was derived from baccarat but somehow the latter "got left behind". And when bj-ers apply their methods to it, well it always seems to be in a less-than-serious/too-serious manner.

I used to have a baccarat card-counting method in which i slightly increased one side of it to slowly help that side pull ahead (as the cards were dealt) to not have to repeatedly calculate a TC. The same with my "non-linear" bj counting, to keep some things self-adjusting.

Near the end of my interest in that game, i realized it's just as important to study the experienced dealers. Nine times out of ten, they knew as much about what was coming as did i. (Bj is a game of "subbing" or parallel processing. A subconscious ability most have to some extent to, eg, add up a bunch of numbers simultaneously. Eg, when adding up one's rummy total often by just looking. Opposed to genius-like "thinking in concepts".)

I just posted a baccarat tip which came from the late Jess Marcom, who was considered to be a math genius. In BJ, it's agreed that once anyone takes the time and effort to learn one or more of the 'very good' card counting systems; if you know something of 'cover,' and if you follow betting guidelines with discipline, (such as Kelly) then after a while, the whole process runs virtually on automatic... it becomes reflexive and subconscious, like you mention. One knows automatically which play is the best, math speaking.
It should be remembered that few people however, reach this stage of excellence. Even if they do, they are likely to be banned for being too successful.

Like my card counting instructor, who now lives in Hong Kong. He made plenty during the 1990s and after being banned from most Australian casinos, he played overseas. He retired in his late 30s, and now does other stuff in HK.

As for dealers, he gave me one piece of advice which I found to be true, (as do many in the BJ community):
Never listen to any playing advice or recommendation as to what to do, from a BJ dealer. Most of them have no idea how to count, let alone how to bet efficiently. They are there to do a job... deal the cards and then go home after their shift. It is a good idea to be friendly, but basically forget about what a dealer's advice may be. If you know your stuff, you will instantly realize they don't know what they are talking about.

I haven't played anwhere near as much baccarat, so I cannot comment on bacca dealers, but I suspect they may be cut from the same cloth.

And of course, no dealer in any card game has any idea what is coming next, unless he/she is Clark Kent, wearing Xray glasses.

I have noticed people playing mini baccarat, using pattern-matching systems. Because that is the fast version of the game, I see few winners, because, I think, of what Jess demonstrated.

In Asia, most all baccarat games are dealt from the machine: a 126CSM. That means card counting is futile. So baccarat AP players are left to other means to try to attain a winning advantage. Same as Blackjack players faced with the same problem. In BJ, most APs will not play against a CSM. But there are a very small number who claim to be able to relatively consistently show a profit against these hateful machines. So what can they use, if card counting is useless? They can use dealer busts, dealer streaks, player streaks and patterning, among others. Some of these are similar methods that are employed with baccarat punters, (without the dealer bust of course.)

In BJ circles, 'patterning' is labelled voodoo and is considered suspect and extremely risky for a betting method. In baccarat, patterning is much more accepted, isn't it? In the relatively few occasions I played baccarat, I dabbled only with patterns, to some small success. I would patiently wait until I thought I'd spotted a pattern like BBPBBP and then on the 7th 8th and 9th hand I would bet up with the hope that the pattern would continue. Sometimes it did, sometimes it didn't, but overall, I ended up in front from my simple little basic 'system.' I was never hog-tied by the game enough to look for more serious methods to beat it.

A guy I was reading recently, who lives in Germany, claims to make a profit from CSM-dealt blackjack by his form of sequencing. He claims to be able to memorize a pack 52 random cards sequencially in a few minutes. He claims that by memorizing a group or say 20 or 30 discards before they are placed back into the machine, he can get enough info from those to be able to turn it into an advantage.

Sequencing at baccarat is a known way of cheating as teams have been busted in recent years when, with the help of the dealer who is the main part of the gang, somebody notes a sequence of say 30 or 40 cards and when it's time to shuffle, the dealer leaves that pile out of the shuffle and then we voila! have a nice little slug of cards whereby the gang knows exactly which side, (or tie) to bet on. That could be 7 or 10 hands where maximum bets all have won... and the casino is getting suspicious... seeing as few max bets appeared before that streak!

My guess is that just like in BJ - where sequencers can make good profits - this method works with this game as well. (with hand-shuffled decks)
A sloppy or inept dealer's habits are studied and a slug of sequenced cards can be shuffle-tracked by an experienced shuffle-tracker. When the key card appears about where it should be, get out the big bets... But just like blackjack, the methods to gain an advantage are only limited by the scope and depth of the human imagination.

How many cards in a sequence can you memorize at once? Here is a clue as to the possibilities. A few years ago, an Indian held the world record for memorizing Pi back 30,000 numbers in the correct sequence. The human mind is unlimited. Now how many cards can you sequence? 6 was it?

All of the casinos I have seen use ASMs for baccarat, which allows counting but limits sequencing and eliminates shuffle tracking. If you know of a casino that still uses hand shuffles it could be very valuable to a skillful player.

And I'm interested to see where your pattern/streak goading leads us. I can see you setting the trap already, Kat.

hi every one. im new to this forum. like all of you guys im also a bacarrat lover. Regaurding them csm machines, personally i stay away from them. I never like them machines as the out come of the shoes is somewhat hard to play. (pass experience)

This trap you are talking about exists only in your own imagination Sav. Now aren't you lucky having ASMs at your joints, enabling you to count to your heart's content. If you count at all that is. What is the point anyway, as an earlier post makes this point quite clear. I noticed your use of blackjack jargon is very up to date and accomplished. This suggests you also, have some background in blackjack. Have any BJ skills you may have picked up helped you in any way with baccarat?

You are hinting in the area of the skillful player. This seems to imply that you are one. If so, I'm not asking you to spill any of your hard-won beans, however, you might give us newbies here a couple of general tips concerning our planned betting attacks on this deadly game. You don't have to answer them if you don't want to.
1 Can the game of baccarat be consistently beaten by a skillful player who is also skillful with his betting and bankroll management?

2 Is such a consistently winning player likely to get the boot eventually, from whatever casino he finds himself in?

hi sav, I do play baccarat very often, as i live in macau. The thing about bacarrat is, that its a skill game. i often look at the sequence and the possibility of each previous bets. I tend to be old fashion, so i dont get to greedy. I play most of the week and try to get $1000hk a day. sometimes when its just one of those days - as in up and down then i tend to leave and try the next day. As to formula, i am currently trying it out. will let u all know of the out come! seeing many professional gamblers they use the progessive bets, which is good in a sense. But the thing about it is that many people will loose confidence at the higher stake. Many professional gamblers may not amit to that, but it is there, as the huge amount of money being at stake. lost of confidence is not good at the gambling table.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gordon2882 seeing many professional gamblers they use the progessive bets, which is good in a sense.

Professional players do not use progression systems, except maybe for 2-3 hands in certain tournament situations. The people you see are not professionals; they are just plain gamblers like everyone else. A skillful player will almost never be recognized by the other players at the table. I’ve had numerous gamblers criticize my playing because they didn’t recognize the skill. They argue with me about my decisions, complain that I am somehow affecting their hands, and curse my “luck” when I consistently win the hands. I’ve even had people try to help me by offering advice but their advice is always wrong. Perhaps you have seen players like me at the tables, and perhaps they were winning for a reason. If you don't know what to look for you will never know when you've seen it. Progression systems are a sure sign of a losing gambler.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Katweezel Have any BJ skills you may have picked up helped you in any way with baccarat?

Absolutely. Many of the techniques used to beat BJ can be used to beat any other card game. BJ is the most popular beatable game so there is a wide range of material covering playing strategies, betting strategies, risk management, game analysis, comp hustling, team play, cover techniques and other aspects that are important elements of skillful play. The same material is applicable to any casino game but not many people write books about the other games. A book about Casino War or California Craps probably wouldn't sell very well so why bother writing it? Most gamblers want books about BJ or Roulette because they are more popular. The publishing industry is fueled by the public and the public doesn't want to learn how to beat the other games (or unicycle juggling).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Katweezel 1 Can the game of baccarat be consistently beaten by a skillful player who is also skillful with his betting and bankroll management?

See my previous advice. Can You Make Enough Money to Live On From Online Baccarat?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Katweezel 2 Is such a consistently winning player likely to get the boot eventually, from whatever casino he finds himself in?

Not if he plays it properly. It is more likely that the opportunity will dry up before he gets the boot.

dont get me wrong, im not a progressive player. i like to bet flat. i agree with what you have said. and yes, i have notice that some pros bet different then others. the people i see, are people day in day out, yes they have there own system and as you say they only progress when they are lossing 1 hand. last of all, i have the same problem as you. dont you just hate people cursing you and giving the wrong advices. but what i do love is when i win that hand. great feeling when you see their faces.

I think this is just a language difference. Here in the US we call those people regulars not professionals. The regular gamblers are the people that you always see at the casino. After a few trips you will begin to recognize certain faces that are always hanging around. You may even become friends with them. These people are not winning players and definitely not professionals. They are people who gamble for fun and end up losing money. In the rare case that you do see a skillful player and can recognize his play, which doesn’t happen at baccarat tables, they are usually just a recreational player who likes to earn a little extra money while on vacation. I don’t consider them professionals either although I do appreciate their talent.

Part 1.

Here're the two posts from other forums i was able to quickly find regarding 'card-sequencing' an ASM.

Note Sonny's words (below), specifically, "If the machine is an automatic shuffler machine (ASM) then there is no way to know how many cards will be between sequenced cards. The cards are not shuffled the same way a human would do it. They are not riffled together, they are usually randomly selected and distributed. Trying to track or sequence these machines would be a nightmare." ( BlackjackInstitute.com :: View topic - Sequencing and shuffle tracking .)

And those from another, in the post which immediately follows. Though that poster isn't of Sonny's AP-guru stature at Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com .

----------------------------------------------------------------------

BlackjackInstitute.com
Forum for the blackjack community.
Sequencing and shuffle tracking

Here is a list of several resources, some more reliable than others. There is enough free information on the internet to get you started but you will need to do a lot of homework for yourself.

Zone Tracking:
Shuffle Tracker’s Cookbook: Arnold Snyder
Blackbelt In Blackjack The New Revised edition: Arnold Snyder
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Cookbook.htm
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2140
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/statman.htm
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/shufdrv1.htm
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/tracking.htm
Blackjack Ace Prediction: David McDowell
Blackjack Blueprint: Rick Blaine

Cutoff Tracking:
Blackjack Essay’s: Mason Malmuth (he calls it Card Domination)
Shuffle Tracking for Beginners: GeorgeC
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1919
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1920

Sequencing:
Blackjack Ace Prediction: David McDowell
Blackjack Blueprint: Rick Blaine
ZenGrifter Interview (somewhere in there): http://www.blackjackinfo.com/ZGInterview.pdf
Get The Edge at Blackjack: John May

-Sonny-
_________________
It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!Back to top


Flashmoses



Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 24

Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: I have a quesatin about shuffle tracking: If the casino uses a card shuffler machine where you can not even see the cards being shuffled, you do not know if the cards are being shuffled 10 times, or not at all. How do you determine how many new cards are placed between each tracked card?
I have tried asking a few times at my usual casino's, how much do the cards get shuffled. I have been told (correctly or not, I can not tell), is that they do not know them selves.Back to top


Sonny



Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 67
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:51 pm Post subject: Most casino employees don’t really know anything about the machines, other than the fact that they jam too often.

If the machine is an automatic shuffler machine (ASM) then there is no way to know how many cards will be between sequenced cards. The cards are not shuffled the same way a human would do it. They are not riffled together, they are usually randomly selected and distributed. Trying to track or sequence these machines would be a nightmare.

If the machine is a continuous shuffler machine (CSM) then the deck is constantly randomized after each hand. Again, there is no riffling, just semi-random selection and distribution. Depending on the type of machine there might be a way to predict certain cards, but it is a very difficult skill to learn, practice and profit from.

An ASM can be good for a card counter since you can get more hands per hour, but the CSMs should be avoided at all costs. It’s best not to encourage the casinos to use them at all.

-Sonny-
_________________
It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!Back to top

Part 2.

Flashmoses



Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 24

Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Most of the casino's I go to have quite a few tables for BJ. Because of this, two, maybe three tables will be CSM, all the rest use the automatic shuffling. I always just skip the CSM table and only play the ASM ones. Even the two deck tables use ASM.Back to top


Sonny



Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 67
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: ASMs can be nice because they speed up the game. The house wins more money from the gamblers and the APs win more money from the house. Everybody wins. One drawback is that you can't track the shuffle unless you know what's going on inside tha machine. There are some decent sources of information about the machines, but it takes a lot of work to verify that the results are reliable. You're better off just ignoring the possability.

-Sonny-
_________________
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Flashmoses



Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 24

Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: I do not know how wide spread this one is, but around here, they also have another trick to nullify the cut card tracking also - they use two plastic cards, one for the cutting purpose. The other one, the dealer slips below the cards as they remove the pack from the shoe. This makes it virtually impossible to see the bottom card. So it becomes less important where the cut is placed.
Only once (maybe twice) have I been able to catch the dealers hole card.
So, this means, the only real strategy left is to know how to count, and which table to avoid.
Flash.Back to top




----------------------------------------------------------------------

From this thread at CasinoMeister, BJ- Automatic shuffler vs dealer shuffler - Casinomeister's Online Casino and Poker Forum , we have:



5th March 2008, 05:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by same old

I used to be able to walk in there watch a few chute's ( <-- not sure of spelling) go by and see somewhat of a pattern for when the high cards come out and I bet big..

Your voodoo high-card pattern scheme should work equally poorly for a hand shuffle as for an automatic shuffle.

Incidentally, legitimate card counting works equally well for either hand shuffle or ASM. ASMs do however effectively eliminate other advantage player techniques such as shuffle tracking and card sequencing.

Part 3.

While i'm at it, here's a link, Amazon.com: The Baccarat Battle Book: Frank Scoblete: Books , to the first pages of a Scoblete book. I think he discusses AP stuff on page 2, if you tab through it using the tabs at the sides of the little window which pops up after a short wait. *** Note: It goes w/o saying that i'm neither endorsing nor trashing his, or anyone else's work(s).

THE UP-SHOT ====> Card-sequencing (an ASM) in baccarat would yield even fewer opportunities in play; and of even less-valuable information (than in bj).

In the past i have done some research work (beyond the scope of this forum) studying various significantly-relevant deck-compostions under an "ASM-transform". Great "fun" for the curious who already know the logical shortcomings but do it anyway to find out where else doing so may lead.

Of course this is not to say there're aren't other AP methods, skills, whichever you want to call those; and more such charts/details, etc, already available to be posted by someone here later which could be of use when, egs, a card is "flashed", or a player is given the option to "pull back" a bet upon a boxed card in the shoe. I just hope it won't be done with an aire of cryptic claims/hints; excessively-useless math (easily bungled and misinterpreted); and/or false condescensions.

----------------------------------------------------------------------


As an aside to all of that heavy stuff, here's a news article regarding how well baccarat has gone over in Macau; and as always(?), when too much of a good thing isn't.





Baccarat drives Macau casino revenues

07/24/2008 | 06:45 PM

MACAU - Macau's casino revenues rose 48 percent in the second-quarter, driven largely by growth in VIP baccarat play.

The popular Chinese enclave's 30 casinos brought in 28.89 billion patacas (US$3.6 billion) in the three months through June, compared with 19.57 billion patacas in the year-ago period, the territory's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau revealed on its Web site in figures seen Thursday.

Higher VIP baccarat revenues, up more than 52 percent to 20.1 billion patacas (US$2.5 billion) compared with a year ago, were the biggest factor. New casinos such as the Sands' Venetian Macao, which opened August last year, also helped.

Revenue for the three months through June, however, fell 3.1 percent from 29.82 billion (US$3.7 billion) in the first quarter.

It was the first quarter-to-quarter decline since 2005, analysts said.

Fewer visits from mainland Chinese — who account for the majority of Macau's gambling patrons — after the May earthquake in Sichuan province have been partly to blame, analysts said. The 7.9 magnitude temblor killed 70,000 people and left 18,000 missing.

The number of visitor arrivals from mainland China softened from around 1.55 million in May to nearly 1.36 million in June, a decline of around 12 percent, according to Macau's tourist office. Year over year the number of mainland visitors rose in June.

Last year, Macau casinos took in US$10.3 billion, according to the government. In 2006, the former Portuguese colony surpassed the Las Vegas Strip as the world's top gambling center. - AP










Tong said his company's machines could deal with between 200 and 300 players at one time, cut the length of each deal from two minutes to 30 seconds and minimize dealer errors and fraud.

is there any difference beetween machine and live dealer?? the rules stay the same right??