Thread: Kitchen table experiment...

Hi folks. My first post here. The board looks pritty need!
I already have a question. I am looking fore some strategies to deal with baccarat. I am not expecting the holy grale but I want to experiment a bit on the kitchen table if you know what I mean. Thank you.

Klaas.

Klaas,

Why not the "holy grail"? Sure, it's okay to splash around a bit at a casino, try your luck every now and then. Even participating in baccarat clubs without (scamming) member fees can be a good pastime (instead of gambling compulsively.) But the more-serious players of any game first seek out a REALISTIC "grail" by considering all the possibilities, then drawing THEIR OWN conclusions.

Baccarat players do mostly seem to have their own systems but paradoxically, most are very reluctant to divulge those... likely because most baccarat systems rely strictly on patterning which has yet to be scientifically qualified and quantified. (So far, it ultimately seems to "boil down to" what seems to work in play over the short term; or what so and so "claims" works. Like all the UFO pictures, "a picture is worth a 1000 words but it takes 10,000 words to validate the picture." Because baccarat is so close to 50-50 it can (and often does) take months to properly test a system by play alone. Even then, there's the psychological pitfalls. Eg, the best bj card-counters over estimate the effect of what they're doing after wins, which are MOSTLY luck at any time. (Perfect counting in most 8-deck bj games yeilds an advantage, if you want to call it that, so slight that the advantage part of any particular win is negligible.) So me, you, and everyone else can and do start to believe that each of our wins results from "one's own" system, and that bad luck causes the losses. Even playing a losing baccarat system long enough will often bring its "bottom line" up or back up until finally falling too far behind to ever catch up again... thus the mistaken realization one "must have a winner (not to be sold at any price"). Most systems though are just abandoned, some never even properly documented or tested.

Anyway, being allowed to "arbitrarily choose" the winning side at any game is the distinguishing mystique of baccarat. It would be more damaging to the game to remove that aspect than to overcome it? There's all sorts of general gaming techniques and strategies to combine with card counting/tracking to help, but it's the concept of being able to "reach in and pull out" the next outcome given past ones which has to be the most intriguing (and elusive.) But with so many individual systems, even wrt recording the outcomes, is where the kitchen drawing-board approach gets "bogged down".

Unlike bj, baccarat already incorporates the "basic strategy" into the banker draw's. (Except it would be better for the banker-5 start to not stop drawing on a player draw of 3; and for a banker-6 start to not draw on a player draw of 7)... perhaps the reason there's less camaraderie (and hence sharing) between baccarat players. (When in fact everyone betting on the banker is already "playing correctly".)

Generally wrt patterns, there're two types: streak (one way or other); and chop (back and forth). Then comes some sort of dominance by one side streaking longer or more often (than the other after the chops). But patterns alone CAN'T help us know which pattern is coming next, can't do the patterning. (As that sentence, itself, is a 'circular (non-) definition'.) Which in turn implies there are no specific patterns, ie, no one pattern more/less likely than another. Secondly, ought a given (past) pattern repeat or change (back); or turn into a different pattern?

Klaas, these are the basics for anyone who approaches any "grail" for baccarat. There are hundreds of "free" or pay systems out there, but be very careful from the start because some are very complicated and have no real direction. You could waste even more time than money. Ask questions. NEVER pay for any baccarat system because there is no way of verifying those beforehand. (Even a truly-working system won't work for everyone all the time. There's just no guarantee.) And most can be found for free, and with guidance, through on-line forums such as this one.

ONE OTHER THING TO BE CLEARED UP NOW, GIVEN THE RUN OF PLAYERS HERE WANTING THEIR SYSTEMS TESTED BY COMPUTER SIMULATION... That is not something just any programmer can do. That must be done by someone statistically-qualified and (hopefully) accredited; and will necessarily require a substantial fee. I always recommend this link, because for the price (and 10X odds for a successful baccarat system) it is a good deal: $30,000 Betting System Challenge , as I know the link to be reliable for that purpose. In virtually all cases though, simulation can be ruled out because the system in question doesn't make sense, or its basic qualities have already been tested elsewhere.