Mr. Baccarat from Baccarat Edge: I'm Calling You Out

[Savant]

So if I start with a 200 unit bankroll, as you suggest, what is the risk of ruin using the calculator on this website? What if I only have 100 units to start with? And if I am able to add some money to my bankroll every month, maybe 10 units, what is my risk of ruin if I start with only 50 units? I have had some bad experiences with other systems so I want to make sure I am playing safely. I am still unsure about your system so I don't want to go broke testing it before I know if it works or not.

[bacdoctor]

In my opinion, I would not start without having a dedicated bank of 150-200 units just in case you start off badly. I would not start with a minimal bank hoping to "dance between the raindrops and not get wet."

[Savant]

But how safe is a 150-200 unit bankroll? Can you give me the risk of ruin numbers? And as long as I am able to replenish my losses each month then wouldn't that be the same as having a bigger bankroll to start with? I may have to take a short break if I tap out early but there will be times when I win enough to overcome those losing times beforehand. How does that change the risk of ruin numbers?

[garnabby]

bacdoctor,

Without splitting hairs, on mathematics i doubt you readily possess, i think we must agree that any winning baccarat system would also win by "flat" betting. (Albeit at a slower ROI; but at much less ROR.)

"I too like the rain, but always bring an umbrella."

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BTW everyone else, Ellis took the rest of his (Beat the Casino Forums) site down from the public too late... there's no garbage left to reveal there. Looks like the price has gone up while the junk remains the same.

The site now begins with:
Hello, I have decided to make BeatTheCasino.com by invitation only. Our exclusive Baccarat and Blackjack forum, that has some of the best players in the world as members, it is $1000.00 a year for membership. If you are interested use the contact us forms.

If you want to plug your site, someone elses site or anything else use the Casino Ads Forum or the Beatthecasino.com links. If you want to talk poker use those forums as you see fit. It's Free to register to do this so go ahead if you would like to.
If you want to argue about Baccarat or Blackjack and who knows what go elsewhere. We are real players and have no time to waste arguing with you. It's easier to play and develop better strategies from real players and real casinos. Regards BTC

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In my opinion, I would not start without having a dedicated bank of 150-200 units just in case you start off badly. I would not start with a minimal bank hoping to "dance between the raindrops and not get wet."

[Savant]

...i think we must agree that any winning baccarat system would also win by "flat" betting.

I can't agree with that. Beating baccarat is all about taking advantage of the rare situations where you have an advantage. It is impossible to predict winning and losing hands. The best you can hope for is to determine relative advantages and disadvantages. You have to be able to recognize those positive EV situations and hit them as hard as you can afford to. It could theoretically be possible to beat the game with a flat bet if you only play the hands with an advantage and sit out all the rest, but that isn't always a practical solution. If you want to get an advantage you need to know how to play and when to bet. In almost all cases a flat bet simply won't get the job done.

(Albeit at a slower ROI; but at much less ROR.)

If the ROI is smaller then it most likely has a much higher ROR. Even though the variance might be lower with a flat bet, the decreased advantage usually increases the ROR quite a bit. You are almost always better off using a bigger spread and a smaller unit size, assuming you are betting proportionally.

[garnabby]

I can't agree with that. Beating baccarat is all about taking advantage of the rare situations where you have an advantage. It is impossible to predict winning and losing hands. The best you can hope for is to determine relative advantages and disadvantages. You have to be able to recognize those positive EV situations and hit them as hard as you can afford to. It could theoretically be possible to beat the game with a flat bet if you only play the hands with an advantage and sit out all the rest, but that isn't always a practical solution. If you want to get an advantage you need to know how to play and when to bet. In almost all cases a flat bet simply won't get the job done.



If the ROI is smaller then it most likely has a much higher ROR. Even though the variance might be lower with a flat bet, the decreased advantage usually increases the ROR quite a bit. You are almost always better off using a bigger spread and a smaller unit size, assuming you are betting proportionally.

Savant,

The point of this thread is to TEST Mr. Baccarat's system. That would be best done by computer simulation, but if i had to test any system live i would certainly "flat" bet small amounts for a long time.

Bacdoctor appears to be saying a lengthy progression is necessary over the short term. Therefore that system necessarily fails. And your statement, "you need to know how to play and when to bet" can't make any more of the the (mostly, in your OPINION so far,) unfavorable games favorable. Other betting procedures could improve (to even) or better (beyond that) any results once the "flat" bet result shows promise.

Even by betting heavily on the truly "rare situations", according to standard gambling theory writings of which one will appear shortly on this board (, courtesy of Katweezel,) the ROI which I take to be the bottom line other than inferences of "advantage/disadvantage" (which you seemed to have gone out of your way here to find fault wrt "flat" betting a "supposedly" winning system,) would be very impractical.

[littogage]

Consider.....THERE IS NO KNOWN strategy, method, system, that CONSISTENTLY WINS in the entire WORLD. That DOESN"T mean it cannot be created. I also know, there are "TESTER" books of baccarat, that the author of the "SYSTEM" "METHOD" "STRATEGY" complies, simply to JUSTIFY the "SALE" of what they are SELLING. I AM 58 years old, and I HAVE several THOUSAND recorded baccarat shoes, from LIVE CASINO play in biloxi, tunica, bahamas, and vegas. SO, I will make a CHALLENGE, if the seller of this system, wants me to TEST IT against ANY thousand of my live casino shoes that I have personally recorded, I WOULD WELCOME the opportunity to show IF it DOES or it DOESN'T stand up to the test I am offering. My integrity is IMPECCABLE, with HONOR. I WILL GIVE ALL OF THE RESULTS OF THE TESTING TO THE OWNER OF THE SYSTEM, ALL DONE BY HAND. IF..it stands TRUE TO WINNING as the AUTHOR says it will, I WILL PURCHASE IT, and if it doesn't STAND TRUE, I will simply say it doesn't. THIS CHALLENGE DOES NOT COST THE SELLER ONE PENNY, and it will only cost me, the time, and energy to do so. So......WHAT SAY YOU?

[littogage]

I offered a challenge, in a prior post, concerning this method, only to find out it was removed quickly. Very interesting.

[garnabby]

I offered a challenge, in a prior post, concerning this method, only to find out it was removed quickly. Very interesting.

Hi littogage,

Just curious, what was your challenge, and under which thread? I see your offer to test that method in this thread. Perhaps someone else removed their own posts, which is allowed at this message-board. (I see DiMenosCor removed 3 or 4, and left the private forum, though he didn't indicate why.)

Anyway, and in my opinion, the person behind this system is just resisting any validation process of it. As we've all learned with this stuff, there're any number of excuses, rationales, and put-offs when it comes to that.

The tendency for "developers" to become ever-more "slick".

[littogage]

Hi Gar, and thank you for concern and information. Genuinely appreciated. My challenge was, being that I am 58 yrs old, with integrity, honesty, and honor, and have played baccarat for 20 years, I offered to test his method for free, with the several thousand handwritten baccarat shoes I have played, and if it did what he said it would do, I would purchase it. Obviously, he would lose NOTHING, and it would cost me alot of time, focus, and energy. I would even offer to pay TEN TIMES what it cost. So, as I have learned, if you put the "sellers" of their so called "money making methods" to the test, it is easy to see what it is about, when they delete you, or ignore you. I have no problem EXPOSING anything that is false, misrepresented, half truths, fluff and hype. Honesty, integrity, and honor, is ALWAYS a persons BEST FRIEND.

[Mikewin]

Hi Littogage

Would you interesting to test " MWIN METHOD ".

If you interesting pls contact by following email baccarat_tactic@yahoo.com.

Thanks

Mikewin

[eirescott]

I guess Mr Baccarat has fuc*ed off.

I "love" how everyone's so secretive about these systems that are supposed to work. It's not like you can't keep winning - if they work - and share the wealth. I don't get it!

If someone likes what I am posting - any time you want, I'm looking for a roulette tracking computer.

I have a system that claims over 12 units per shoe.

Here it is.

UNZIP and READ WITH ADOBE.

I had to break it down because of the limited upload amount allowed.

[Gypsy12]

I bought Baccarat Edge and tested it and it doesn't hold up as advertised.
The loser that sells it is a guy from Tullahoma, Tennessee by the name of Bill Sasher. He goes by the alias of William Handle. He is the author of Stealth Baccarat, Rock Solid Baccarat, and Fail Safe Baccarat. None of these systems work either.
I paid him $299 for the system and have been requesting a refund for over a month now. He either ignores my requests, hangs up on me when I call his Las Vegas cell phone, or tells me via e-mail that he is going to send it out that day. I have yet to receive it, even though he advertises a refund on his website.
This guy is a crook plain and simple. He runs a bio-diesel company that got sued by the State of Tennessee for ripping hundreds of people off a few years back.
Don't waste your money on his worthless junk.
When I tested it it went way in the negative and busted out quicker than any system that I have ever tested.

[eirescott]

Hello Gypsy12. Is it the same as the system I posted here - I posted it because it sounded the same.

If not, could you either email me the system or put it up on the site. You likely need to zip it into small files if it is larger than a few k.

I realize you paid for it - and have received nothing. Perhaps if it worked I would understand you not wanting to post it. If you can't post it because you may void your refund, then send it to me anonymously and I will post it. No one could prove I didn't receive it from another source.

The reason why I am interested in seeing the system is because this guy has travelled around various forums claiming great success, offering to share the wealth etc. etc. I would love to have the opportunity to expose him if he is a scammer.

Thanks.

[kolokotronis]

Guys,
i've been around the game for about 20 years, starting out reading Lyle Stuarts book published in the 70's and became a pattern player. And pattern play still works today, but for limited duration. By the time you identify it, it may be too late to capitalize. Better today to try to pick up on streaks and chopiness and play accordingly.
You folks (especially garnabby) are critical of Ellis Davis, but his 90's systems which i purchased and modified to my specs still work for me to this day. I don't know what Ellis is up to these days, but i really don't need anything more complex than his old systems i use to defeat Bac and Roulette consistantly at the South Louisianna casinos. I grind out 5 -6 units/shoe (averaged 10 the other nite), risk is low, a 1 to 3 bet spread using a half speed random D'Alembert...

Thought i should let ya'll know

[garnabby]

Guys,
i've been around the game for about 20 years, starting out reading Lyle Stuarts book published in the 70's and became a pattern player. And pattern play still works today, but for limited duration. By the time you identify it, it may be too late to capitalize. Better today to try to pick up on streaks and chopiness and play accordingly.
You folks (especially garnabby) are critical of Ellis Davis, but his 90's systems which i purchased and modified to my specs still work for me to this day. I don't know what Ellis is up to these days, but i really don't need anything more complex than his old systems i use to defeat Bac and Roulette consistantly at the South Louisianna casinos. I grind out 5 -6 units/shoe (averaged 10 the other nite), risk is low, a 1 to 3 bet spread using a half speed random D'Alembert...

Thought i should let ya'll know

Thanks Gypsy12,

When i read the original website i knew right away it was a scam, just by its ridiculous offer to "send back the first payment if the buyer would be honest enough to mail the second". (And by how soon the "hook" was re-worded the following day after i noted that part.)



eirescott,

The burden of proof of any claim is always upon the seller. And unreasonable stipulations such as "refund void if... ", and the like are never binding upon the buyer.



kolokotronis,

According to you, patterning works but doesn't work... so play accordingly.

And so it goes also with Ellis' patterning, as it too must be played accordingly in some improvised, modified manner depending on PAST results. (And if it doesn't work for the next guy, well, "it wasn't played right".)

BTW, it's Louisiana . (Thought "y'all" should know some real information.)

[Klaas]

He Garnabby, I know you don't take kindly with folks playing Ellis systems. But you may want to take a scotch and kalm down. Kolokotronis ain't hurting nobody.

Abouth Eirescotts systems. Besides giving Eierstock note if one of them works it may be the right thing to do if we give the seller of the working system his money by purchading it. That is if one of them works of course!

Klaas

[garnabby]

He Garnabby, I know you don't take kindly with folks playing Ellis systems. But you may want to take a scotch and kalm down. Kolokotronis ain't hurting nobody.

Abouth Eirescotts systems. Besides giving Eierstock note if one of them works it may be the right thing to do if we give the seller of the working system his money by purchading it. That is if one of them works of course!

Klaas

Makes no difference to me in any way who plays which.

But everytime someone "plugs" Ellis, or any other scammer (w/o a single fact or truth to his name), i feel a moral obligation to try to point something out.

If kolokotronis, or anyone else has something substantive in support of Ellis, then this is the place to point it out, and debate it. Ie, skip the "scotch and calm down" stuff. (It's just a bit odd that someone from Texas doesn't know how to spell a state next-door, or the word "y'all". But wants us to take for granted the same old "spiel".)

[kolokotronis]

Klass is right. I'm not out here to upset anybody. I'm too new in this forum for that. Mr. Garnabby, i sometimes become dependent on "spellcheck", the 2 n's in Louisiana was a slip. I know how to spell. The ya'll is just some Texas terminology to spice things up a bit. My base language is Greek, which is the basis for most Western languages, and is "pure". English grammer is primative compared to Greek.
As far as my Bac experiences, early on i was more an instinct player and did ok and maybe enjoyed the game more. My game today is more refined and structured and mechanical. Nothing to get excited about. Just a grind. But it has produced, and i get the Asians to follow along sometimes when they need a place to run and hide. I'm usually the smallest player at the table too.
I won't defend Ellis too much, he will agressively market his stuff to move it off the shelf. But if i'm at a table, tired, and don't want to think too much, i'll pull out the Ellis system i have had for 13 years and it more often than not will get the job done.

[Gypsy12]

KOLOTRONIS:
YOU ARE A COMPLETE MONTGOMERY COUNTY LIAR AND A FOOL.
YOU DO NOT WIN CONSISTENTLY AT BACCARAT AND YOU KNOW IT!!!
IF YOU DID YOU WOULD LIVE IN VEGAS!

[kolokotronis]

Gypsy 12,
Re Malaka, if you have the tools and the training and a system that works with the typical game type, it can be done, has been done, and will continue to be done. There are times when my method is working too well so i'll adjust down my unit denomination for the inevitable correction. I won't change the system at mid-shoe. Or sometimes i may overlap a defensive strategy. Don't need to live in Vegas, since i don't intend or need to play full-time. Montgomery County suits me just fine:>))

[Gypsy12]

Malaka? You are the wanker!

[kolokotronis]

Peace Gypsy12,
You did your homework, and now you know a word in Greek. haha

[guest]

I think that if anyone purchased a system and found that it does not work, then he would be doing a service to simply post the system here. If you post a system you should explain it in your own words (so you don't violate copyright laws). Methods of play from what I understand are not copyrightable, but the actual wording and phrasing of the text is... so just wing it in your own jargon and tell us how the system (which didn't work) functions. The purpose is to debunk the scammer's claims and to show others the flaws of such an approach so that they don't fall into the same trap in their own experimentation.

[garnabby]

I think that if anyone purchased a system and found that it does not work, then he would be doing a service to simply post the system here. If you post a system you should explain it in your own words (so you don't violate copyright laws). Methods of play from what I understand are not copyrightable, but the actual wording and phrasing of the text is... so just wing it in your own jargon and tell us how the system (which didn't work) functions. The purpose is to debunk the scammer's claims and to show others the flaws of such an approach so that they don't fall into the same trap in their own experimentation.

guest,

It's the "in your own words (or style)" part which is incircumspect, especially with an intent to reproduce a work en masse, and/or for profit given the international copyright laws now in force in virtually all countries. (Unless one demonstrates its arrival to the same conclusion(s), etc, were pre-dated, coincidental, or by any other means.)

Though it's unlikely (and unheard of with such matters here), why take that chance?

[jrhelp007]

kolokotronis,

I sent you 2 private messages. Please respond to me.

Thanks,

John

Guys,
i've been around the game for about 20 years, starting out reading Lyle Stuarts book published in the 70's and became a pattern player. And pattern play still works today, but for limited duration. By the time you identify it, it may be too late to capitalize. Better today to try to pick up on streaks and chopiness and play accordingly.
You folks (especially garnabby) are critical of Ellis Davis, but his 90's systems which i purchased and modified to my specs still work for me to this day. I don't know what Ellis is up to these days, but i really don't need anything more complex than his old systems i use to defeat Bac and Roulette consistantly at the South Louisianna casinos. I grind out 5 -6 units/shoe (averaged 10 the other nite), risk is low, a 1 to 3 bet spread using a half speed random D'Alembert...

Thought i should let ya'll know

[guest]

To Garnabby - "incircumspect?" I don't think that is a word. I am familiar with "circumspect," which means, prudent, careful, cautious, but that doesn't fit your sentence usage... perhaps you meant, "suspect."

In any event... as a matter of honor, I wouldn't want to expose any gambling system which anyone marketed (or attempted to keep as confidential) which works. However, describing one which is fraudulent, I would have no qualms and in doing so (revealing a scam system), I would rely upon allowances (or limitations) which are, in effect, loopholes of the copyright law. The protection of the copyright law involves wording and phrasing, but not procedure.

Section 102(b) of the Copyright Act specifically states: "In no case does copyright protection for an original work of authorship extend to any idea, procedure, process, system, method of operation, concept, principle or discovery, regardless of the form in which it is described, explained, illustrated or embodied in such work."

Procedure can be protected, but for that you must rely on a patent. As an example, medical and surgical procedures are patented routinely as are chemical processes and manufacturing methods. Unfortunately, a patent requires a total public revelation of the steps of the procedure (and therefore is not useful for keeping something a secret). A patent is limited to 20 years after it is granted, while copyright protection extends to 70 years after the death of the author.

So, explaining a gambling system "in your own words" is well within the permissible bounds of the law. Copyright protection only extends to the use of their actual words and phrasing. So, my premise is this... if you purchase a system and you discover that it had been fraudulently represented to you, you can disclose that system publicly (as a service and a warning to others) without fear of any prosecution or liability under the copyright law if you merely describe the procedure in your own words and not those of the author.

[garnabby]

To Garnabby - "incircumspect?" I don't think that is a word. I am familiar with "circumspect," which means, prudent, careful, cautious, but that doesn't fit your sentence usage... perhaps you meant, "suspect."

guest,

Incircumspect
In*cir"cum*spect\, a. [Pref. in- not + circumspect.] Not circumspect; heedless; careless; reckless; impolitic. --Tyndale.

Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary, © 1996, 1998 MICRA, Inc.
(Did you even check???)

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Second, what's the point of any law then so-easily circumvented?

Third, have you any 'firsthand' courtroom-experience? (Why then should others do what even you haven't done here?)

Fourth, such text must also be interpreted (under an unwritten and reasonable 'spirit' of any law.)

Sometimes only "thinking" isn't good enough.

[guest]

I didn't say it was not a word... I said "I" didn't "think" it was. I was polite about it and anxious to learn a new one. Thanks for the lesson (no I didn't look it up... I figured you would for me and you did).

I have indeed had first hand courtroom experience in attempting to defend (or actually having my attorneys defend) a procedure supposedly (or assumed to be) protected by the frailties of copyright law. And, yes, I agree, the law should be improved. There are many weaknesses regarding the protection of intellectual property, especially regarding procedures and methods.

There is also one other particular regarding the legal protection of any "invention." That is that it must improve the "state of the art" and therefore must rise to the level of meeting its own claims of improvement (of the art). Of couse, invention regulations relate to patent laws, because such an invention as a gambling system would only be protected as a patent, not a copyright, but those requirements are beneficial in understanding the limits of protection regarding any invention for which claims are maintained. A system offered which states that it accomplishes certain effects, when actual experience proves that it does not, could not be defended as having any inventive merit and therefore any such claims would be invalid.

I repeat... as a matter of honor, I would not disclose a system which had been presented to me under the promise that I keep it confidential, but if I were to purchase a "system" because of claims which proved to be false (such as "can't lose") and my experience proved that I had been scammed, then I would have no hesitation in revealing the particulars (as a warning to others).

I feel quite confident in assuring anyone that if they will explain a system in their own words and avoid using the terminology or unique phrasing in the copyrighted text that they are well within their rights to do so.

Are you selling a system?

[garnabby]

I didn't say it was not a word... I said "I" didn't "think" it was. I was polite about it and anxious to learn a new one. Thanks for the lesson (no I didn't look it up... I figured you would for me and you did).

Okay, you had me "look it up" (again). And no, you didn't (explicitly) write anything other.

So... are you as "accomplished" at the baccarat-tables?

Are you selling a system

No, anyone really trying to beat this "unbeatable" game has to dig much deeper than the pecuniary. Just as anyone with the technology and capability to track a roulette-ball would (and does) do far better continuing to service and supply the robotics fields, and "star-wars", egs, and w/o putting up with the casino-thing environment.

If you're interested in my own work, there's the private-forum invitation to follow.