Thread: Mr. Baccarat from Baccarat Edge: I'm Calling You Out

I'm a reader of the forum, hadn't registered before, and I came across this post:

Baccarat is Not Random: The Proof

I'll preface this post by saying I'm a complete beginner to baccarat, I'm a reader of this forum because I want to learn. Therefore, I don't post, because well, I'm pretty clueless! I've never taken baccarat training - I may be interested in taking training in the future. I have absolutely no relationship with the author of this system mentioned.

But with that said, I went to the site. I created this new thread in order to not hijack the original post where I found out about this. Like I said, I'm new to baccarat training and how it works, but does this sound reasonable to you guys?

The cost is $1900

I have doccumented the procedure well and offer phone support.

Here is how to get the system:

• I meet you in Tunica, Mississippi.
• We meet and go over the baccarat edge system then go together to the casino to play the baccarat edge strategy in real time.
• You send me $500 to cover my day spent with you. Also, I get half of winnings while you are learning the system.
• This baccarat edge winning gambling system is not difficult to learn, but I will spend a day with you teaching the procedure, if need be.
• You will be responsible for your own lodging and meals. I am a Harrahs' seven star player so mine is covered.
• When we meet you give me $1900.
• I do not have to share this baccarat strategy, but I am getting old and tired and it would be a sin to take it to my grave with me.

This baccarat system is like hitting the lottery, but the ticket is expensive. Serious players only... don't bother me if you are broke... don't bother me unless you are dead serious.

If you do not want to meet in Tunica and spend the extra $500 that is fine with me. If you don't need the training you can purchase the system and learn yourself. I offer phone support on the system for one month whether we meet or not.

I'm supposed to trust this? About how he's doccumented (sic) his system? I mean, there's not even a picture of this guy! He doesn't even give his name! He only goes by the mysterious Mr. Baccarat. Yet he wants $1900 from me? The money isn't necessarily the problem, if something is worth the money, people will pay, that's obvious. But I gotta say that although I'm a complete beginner at baccarat and obviously looking for help, I'm thinking twice about this.

Then there are the questions and answers:

Question: You say "The player never stands to lose more than 9 units of his own money," but the results of the 72 hours at the table show 7 losing games of more than 9 units. Can you explain?

Answer: There are more than one session per shoe. each session has a risk of 9 units.

Question: You say "This baccarat gambling strategy is guaranteed to win 8 units per shoe average per 100 shoes played." If it does not win 8 units per 100 shoes, is there a guarantee?

Answer: You will get a complete refund.

Question: Does baccarat edge just cover bet selection, or are there progression and money management rules?

Answer: Bet selection triggers and money management.

Question: How long have you been playing the baccarat edge system?

Answer: Baccarat for 30 years and edge for a year.

Question: Do you play baccarat for a living?

Answer: Yes, I am a Harrah's Seven Star player.

Question: How many shoes a day do you play?

Answer: It varies usually around 5, but sometimes up to 12.

Question: What are the buy-in and bankroll requirements for the system?

Answer: Bankroll is 150 units - buy-in is 50 units.

Where's the proof? How do we know this guy is a "Harrah's Seven Star player"? What does that even mean, exactly? I could say I'm a Caesar's Palace Triple Roman King Master but in reality I just made that up.

(I just checked online and I did find out something about Harrah's Seven Star Players: "Seven Stars Club is the highest tier level in Harrah's License Company's Total Rewards® program, preceded by Diamond, Platinum and Gold. Diamond cardholders are required to earn 11,000 points in a calendar year, Platinum, 4,000. And, just as there are "high level [high end] Diamond players" (an unofficial term used by hosts and marketing directors at Harrah's properties), there also are "high level [high end] Seven Stars players" – many of whom earn much more than the required 100,000 points in a calendar year. Other than the system-wide benefits – complimentary rooms (including free Internet service, movies and video games), priority check-in and extended late check-out, annual trip (including up to $1,200 in airfare for two, hotel accommodations for four nights, transportation to and from the airport, and $500 credit toward food, beverage, and on-property entertainment), annual gift, $500 celebratory dinner, companion card, and special rewards offers – many casinos, hotels and spas throughout the country offer site-specific additional benefits you may not be aware of.")

He also goes into the actual Baccarat Edge system, with his little story about how he came up with the system. Except he doesn't really go into any real detail about how he came up with his system:

I Firmly believe that the system, baccarat edge, which I am now about to describe is the Only Baccarat System In The Whole World that actually works!

Consequently this baccarat system is the one system of which the Gambling Establishments stand in dread.

Most, if not all baccarat players, assume there is a rhyme and reason to baccarat or certain patterns after certain events. That is simply not true and has led many a baccarat player to financial ruin. A friend of mine once joked that the three steps to becoming a baccarat system player was bankruptcy, divorce and suicide. I think he may have been more right than he thought.

I knew a financial adviser in Biloxi years ago whose name was Ken. He was so sure that the game could be predicted and patterns identified that he took the investor’s money and became a high roller at baccarat. Everyone thought he was just a rich businessman. However, when the feds showed up and arrested him at the casino, I knew something was wrong. I later found out he had wagered in excess of one million dollars chasing trends and patterns with someone else’s money.

All baccarat systems are based on trying to figure out trends. This is the only baccarat strategy based on total random events. This is the only way that baccarat can be defeated. I have found the achilles' heel... just like Thorpe did for Blackjack!

The reason is not hard to figure out. In most of the other gambling systems, whenever the player gets into trouble he has to put more and more of his own money on the table to get his losses back. With this Baccarat System it is just the reverse. The player never stands to lose more than 9 units of his own money, and never has a big stake on the table unless it is with money already won from the Casino.

This baccarat gambling strategy is guaranteed to win at least 8 units per shoe average per 100 shoes played.

What I suggest is this Mr. Baccarat come on here and defend his system. Why should baccarat players pay money for this? Why is it worth giving up the cash for?

Thank you for posting that. Very good job.

I wish you would have posted it when i read it 12 hrs ago, then it was even a wilder, different offer.

I hope others reading this will go to the 'baccarat not random -- proof' post where the situation first developed, to see also my take on being "hijacked".

(As you likely already know) IT IS ILLEGAL TO PERPETRATE SCAMS. Most originate in Nigeria. Sure, they may con someone else to meet you outside some casino here to take your money for them; and then lead you on with story after story. (If not worse.) More likely, though, you'll be emailing your $1900 to Nigeria to save the $500 "meeting fee", or they'll just take your $500, and not show for the $1900.

I live in Tennessee and it is a real system I have been playing for about a year.

What questions do you have?

Well... I'm here ... Where are all of the nay sayers?

Dear Sir/Madam

This is really RinkNounkrfs's place to respond, but in lieu of his/hers at the moment, i have a few questions and comments.

1. How is what you're "offering" different from my def'n of a scam: nothing up front (from you) for an outrageous sum of cash (from me)? (Remember that 500-pg Super/System hard-cover poker book by BRUNSON sold for only $100 twenty years ago, and poker has been documented to be somewhat a game of skill (when not played in casinos.)) How does YOUR unseen "something" merit $5000+, $1900+, etc, when MOST have said no such workable system has yet been presented?? Shouldn't everyone be skeptical??

2. Have you done an exhaustive computer-simulation of your creation(s)? If you really have something, why not contract an independant and qualified 3rd party to verify it. We don't want to unintentionally send customers on "wild goose chases", right?

3. Lastly, how is your system different from (, if you don't want to say any of what's in it,) Ellis', in "My open challenge to Ellis" final post?

Thank you for your short response, and look forward to more.
Sincerely, and respectfully, Mark.

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

Well... I'm here ... Where are all of the nay sayers?

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

Well... I'm here ... Where are all of the nay sayers?

When u say Harrah's do you mean the Horseshoe? Didn't Harrahs buy Jack out?

A

PS. I think you should qualify your statements that your method is the only one that YOU know that wins. Since once must assume you aren't aware of every method.

Harrah's is the largest casino operator in the world. They own Horseshoe, Sheraton, Grand, The new Margaritaville in Biloxi to open next year and of course all Harrah's.

As far as gambling systems I actually do have most all of them. If there is a system any of you are interested in I will be more than happy to send it to you free of charge. That includes baccarat, craps, roulette and blackjack. I have over 700 systems. So, yes you can assume I have checked them all out.

All of the information I intend to share about baccarat edge is on the website. However, I would agree to have it tested by someone I could trust not to reveal it.

The reason it is not a scam is because it works. I am not requiring anyone to buy this unseen - that is an option if you don't want to meet. I have offered to meet with anyone interested. I will show them the actual games from 72 days and the results documented with the system next to each game.

That is proof enough. I trust you to pay once you have seen. I am actually the one subject to being scammed. So really, the risk is mine. I could show the system and then not get paid.

I was told by an old baccarat player years ago that if anyone ever designed a system that would make 3 units per shoe he could get a million for it, well this is a bargain because it does better than that.

As far as the "Ellis" thing you mentioned. I am not familiar with that, but will check it out and get back to you.

Ps. I am also a very skilled web designer. If I had wanted I could have created a fancy website to look impressive, but the results speak a whole lot louder than pictures and words. Unfortunately, the sheeple in this country are more impressed with the eye candy and hype than they are reality.

I understand but how come you didn't answer my question? I shall repeat it. When you say you play at Harrah's in Tunica are you referring to the Horshoe? Simple yes or no would be appropriate. Thank you.

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

Harrah's is the largest casino operator in the world. They own Horseshoe, Sheraton, Grand, The new Margaritaville in Biloxi to open next year and of course all Harrah's.

As far as gambling systems I actually do have most all of them. If there is a system any of you are interested in I will be more than happy to send it to you free of charge. That includes baccarat, craps, roulette and blackjack. I have over 700 systems. So, yes you can assume I have checked them all out.

All of the information I intend to share about baccarat edge is on the website. However, I would agree to have it tested by someone I could trust not to reveal it.

You must live in a vacuum if you have seen "most all of them" (systems) AND you play in Tunica BUT is not familiar with E. Clifton Davis!!!

Maybe you are Davis? Wouldn't surprise me! But hey, seriously, if you are not then check it out and get back to us and tell us what you think of his systems which you are not familiar with.

Archer

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

The reason it is not a scam is because it works. I am not requiring anyone to buy this unseen - that is an option if you don't want to meet. I have offered to meet with anyone interested. I will show them the actual games from 72 days and the results documented with the system next to each game.

That is proof enough. I trust you to pay once you have seen. I am actually the one subject to being scammed. So really, the risk is mine. I could show the system and then not get paid.

I was told by an old baccarat player years ago that if anyone ever designed a system that would make 3 units per shoe he could get a million for it, well this is a bargain because it does better than that.

As far as the "Ellis" thing you mentioned. I am not familiar with that, but will check it out and get back to you.

Ps. I am also a very skilled web designer. If I had wanted I could have created a fancy website to look impressive, but the results speak a whole lot louder than pictures and words. Unfortunately, the sheeple in this country are more impressed with the eye candy and hype than they are reality.

LOL, when you have to "reply" to your own message you are in trouble. I was just thinking you are not Ellis since Ellis is in LV this week and probably has no time for this business - but you never know.

Anyway, one of the things that system designers don't do is let people know some basic facts about their method. Facts which in no way reveal proprietary information but give a sense of credibility to the designer showing that he understands the basic math of gambling and that he has done his/her homework. For instance, Mr. Baccarat could, if he chooses, comment on average bet size, bet spread, no. of bets per shoe, shoe win % (he already did this?), and % units won per units bet which would reveal overall advantage. These are the basics of any method. If you don't know what these are you are just guessing about long term advantage.

The reason for the above is that it is fairly simple to design a method for a subset of outcomes using a statistically insignificant number of decisions. This particularly if you are using a high bet spread.

Example of what Mr. Baccarat's method is probably like since he does not use table patterns or bias detection methods as he plainly states. Whether or not he plays side independent he could use an Oscar's Grind type of rote bet placement to hit trigger wins/losses within the shoe. This would explain his cycles within each shoe as he states. Then start a new cycle. This kind of thing uses a betting pattern (which can change depending on non-patterned outcomes) but still, nevertheless connotes a pattern. Something like this can perform very well for a long time. I have personally seen methods that have won for 100 shoes but then break down and lose big time.

It's like the old marbles in the jar analogy. Put 1000 marbles in a jar; half black and half white. The odds of pulling either is always 50%. But any monkey reaching in may very well pull any number of one color out. Doesn't change the odds. Some monkeys will pull out a LOT of winning marbles while others will pull out a LOT of losing marbles. The monkeys who pull out a lot of winning marbles will say that their method of yanking is the key and they will sell that method for a million bucks!

LOL, anyway, I hit Tunica a couple times a year so maybe I will give him a call next time I am about town. ;-)

Archer

Furthermore. LOL, I am just sitting around the house today. I have been at the casino 3 times already this week and need a little relaxing.

If I was a high roller like Mr. Baccarat and I had an 8 unit win with a high shoe win rate and played 5,6 sometimes 12 shoes a day I would certainly be playing at least purple units. The last thing I would want or need to do is sell the method for 1900 bucks! Hell, I am already making 4k an hour or more! Doesn't he have a son, daughter, cousin who he could help become a millionaire? Or, why not just tell the whole world? They won't shut the game down. Do you know why? Because most people are gamblers, they want to gamble for the action AND they have their own system. Try it. Walk into a casino, befriend another Baccarat player and tell him about the method. He/she won't give you the time of day! Or just try and get a relative or friend. Fat chance - won't happen. Heck, if Mr. Baccarat posted the method here most wouldn't analyze it or play it.

Thanks for listening dear friends.

Archer

PS. My wife says I am too harsh and edgy so I am trying to change my demeanor!

I know Davis well. I was saying I had not seen the thread you were referring about him.

I do play at Horseshoe some, but pretty sleezy place... Like I have said now for 3 times I usually play at Harrah's there.

Ok, my bad, I thought you were referring to his methods. In my mind ALL casinos are pretty sleazy. I know Harrah's has always been popular with the old folks (nothing personal intended here because I am an "old folk."). I just was confused because I thought (think) that Harrah's bought out Jack Binion's Horsehoe.

So then, since you know Davis well and have seen all the methods, as I think you said, and yours is the only one that works (as I think you said); then by implication you are saying that Davis' methods don't work? Please correct my logic if I have misrepresented you.

"The New Improved Gentler" Archer

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

I know Davis well. I was saying I had not seen the thread you were referring about him.

I do play at Horseshoe some, but pretty sleezy place... Like I have said now for 3 times I usually play at Harrah's there.

Well, Mr. Baccarat,

This is all very lovely, but it is going around in circles LIKE ELLIS. And you project (self-traits) like him, referring to others as sheep, waiting to scam YOU, no less! Archer, showing the wisdom of his years, has graciously termed your advances as an "offer to be considered". I, on the other hand, hold a slightly-shorter fuse.

Games, results, and systems ARE NOT PROOF any of those go together/work. "Seven Star Player", what's that prove. (Dealers laugh at persons with those "credentials" because they know what pays for it.)

Please send ME your 700 free systems (, or post them in our free private forum?). Send me YOUR system to evaluate it FOR FREE... i have a mathematics degree, and then some, from Waterloo University, Ontario. Right, but then you'd have to 'trust' me, and you're worried about the sheep scamming you. (My email is REM_baccarat@yahoo.com . If i had 700 substantially-different failing systems, maybe it would shock me into the futility of trying to devise or even give away a "winning" one i created myself?)

Only a fool would risk giving away the WHOLE "million-dollar" idea to another fool, one thinking he was going to scam it off the first! Do what Brunson, the poker-star did... get it published, hence copyrighted, sell it for $20 a pop! No need to worry about "secrets", people will buy it JUST for the convenience of having a copy... if it's got any meat on it and EVERYTHING you've said IS true. Should be a "piece of cake" for one so able to design, etc. But to paraphrase Archer, most players AREN'T interested in anyone else's system(s). I completely agree, so persons (like yourself?) have to tell the biggest lies to dress it up to "make it happen". You're worried about "secrets" but whenever someone asks me can i "keep something secret", i get leary because it's usually not ALSO me being shielded.

Why did you rewrite your initial web-page? The one about $5000 up front; 1/4 of all my future profits on 'the honor system', unless i pay another $5000, in which case you would return the original $5000 for 'being honest'. Was that one a "little too rich" on second thought?

Let's all hope we can stop the next 10 BIG suckers from "buying into" another $1000 piece of paper, quitting their real jobs (and families,) never to be heard from again when it all falls through.

Looking forward to your emails. Thanks in advance... and after, sincerely, Mark.

You are right. I don't trust you. Anyone can say they have a degree. Besides, the math folks are the ones who say baccarat cannot be defeated.

I have decided to share the system with a player from Pennsylvania and he can give you a report at a time when he is ready.

As for the 700 hundred plus systems I will be glad to share them with the group. It is a file around 300 meg so I will need to ftp it to the group owner or whoever can post them. If someone will kindly send or post an ftp address I will get that out to share.

Mr Baccarat,

Again, the projections... i'm neither a "math folk", "wannabe guru", nor someone saying baccarat can't be defeated, etc, etc. (Read my posts carefully.) I like the way you go on to say, "Besides, the math folks are the ones... " were i to post my math degree here; and universities do verify that info upon request. Wouldn't that be the classic selling feature to have an actual systems analyst verify it instead of another "starstruck" losing (biased) player? And, if i may recall here, i'm NOT selling ANYTHING. (Who better to trust, if that's the only outstanding issue here. I surely CAN'T trust someone YOU know in Penn w/o any real credentials at all. Anyways, you're sounding more and more like Ellis, maybe Archer was right.)

We'll have to see what Mike can do about your generous offer with the other (failed) systems.

Thank you, Mark.

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

You are right. I don't trust you. Anyone can say they have a degree. Besides, the math folks are the ones who say baccarat cannot be defeated.

I have decided to share the system with a player from Pennsylvania and he can give you a report at a time when he is ready.

As for the 700 hundred plus systems I will be glad to share them with the group. It is a file around 300 meg so I will need to ftp it to the group owner or whoever can post them. If someone will kindly send or post an ftp address I will get that out to share.

Just ftp'd all systems to forum except craps and roulette which I will try again later. Have fun!

Doing the 600 games from "72 Days At The Baccarat table"

So Far:

266 games displayed - Average win is 9.16 units per shoe!

Look at between 171 and 177. This is the situation I ran into rarely, but is why the 150 unit bankroll is recomended. However, I have never been down over 90 units without coming up past my start point.

Will post more as I get them done. These results and worksheets will be available to those who get the system.

This post is amusing. I was under the impression that you had already played this method, won a bundle and had real live game stats to show your customers. So now you are using these 600 controversial games?

Yawn

Hey, where is that stuff you were going to check out from your buddy Ellis?

Archer

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

Doing the 600 games from "72 Days At The Baccarat table"

So Far:

266 games displayed - Average win is 9.16 units per shoe!

Look at between 171 and 177. This is the situation I ran into rarely, but is why the 150 unit bankroll is recomended. However, I have never been down over 90 units without coming up past my start point.

Will post more as I get them done. These results and worksheets will be available to those who get the system.

Dear baccaratedge,

Here's a reputable fellow who WILL PAY YOU to test your SUCCESSFUL system: $30,000 Betting System Challenge .

If he does infact have the money to put up with a neutral attorney I could use his 30 grand.

He will need to test with actual games played. If he is up to that then I am too.

Dear baccarategde,

No one tests by 'actual games played' because no one has validly recorded NEARLY ENOUGH games to exhaust the outcomes for a definitive test. (And any results must be independently verifiable elsewhere.) No one is going to pay 10 to 1 on a 50/50 result by a few actual games.

Also, there is no difference between 'actual games' and computer-simulated games using the same number of decks freely run, as in practice. (Casinos CAN'T alter baccarat outcomes, nor would they because each and every system keys in on patterns anyway. Computer MACHINE randomness is no more/less random than by shuffler MACHINE. And, the very rules and procedures for baccarat would still randomize the outcomes if, for the sake of arguement, we suppose the cards were less random somehow.)

Can YOU tell me the difference(s) between 'actual games' and simulated games? If not, i guess you're exactly like Ellis and the others.

Your random number generator idea is a crock because no one in their right mind actually plays the game this way! There are start and stop points within each shoe. Unfortunately, the random baccarat tester does not adequately represent how we actually play the game. Since this approach does not reflect how we actually play in the casino, it has little value other than being purely academic.

If this fellow actually has 30 grand, which I seriously doubt, then we can work out something agreeable to both of us. The system works and I will take his money. As for you getting the system I could care less. I have offered to demonstrate in person before purchasing and offer a money back guarantee. Who else does that? I am only revealing it to a very few then the website will be no more. Some have already invested in it and are playing now. Like I said, I could care less if anyone else gets it.

I wagered over $500,000 (documented by the casino that I will show to those who get the system) last year alone so selling it is not my income. However, I am not giving it away only to have hundreds of people playing it and alert the casino that they have a serious weakness.

Dear baccaratedge,

How we, here you, actually play the game has nothing to do with the shoe, whichever machine generates it randomly. The shoe, itself, can't be a strategy to start/stop play, etc; and if you want to 0-bet or switch shoes, that is likely a strategy open to all (long as card-counting isn't used for an advantage in 1/1000 games played.) But we still need millions of games played to converge to a definitive test. The strategies come from you alone.

You cast apersions on others to compensate for your own lack of explanation even here. Read the guy's site, he'll mail you the legal contracts, i don't think he's kidding around. Like Ellis, et al, you claim all sorts of wild things, backing up none with proof (here.)

Thanks, for helping also myself figure this stuff out.
Sincerely, Mark.

Dear Mark,

Does your code rely on normal random variables and you test your code by setting σ = 1 explicitly?

I don't trust the guy on the 30 grand challenge website. However, I think I may let you test it and share the win results. We will need to meet in person and I will need your assurance that it will be kept secret. You may use it yourself for your testing.

My genuine concern is I don't want the casinos to become aware of this procedure, if they do, I will not be playing anymore.

Dear Mr. Baccarat,

My apologies for the delay, but i knew this could wait.

I must now complete my own contribution to the private forum, for which i will prepare a short BASIC-language test-program, a month or two down the road. I'll send you my own program methods and results then.

Perhaps one of my points in putting my own (labored) effort free in the private forum was that i put trust (and end result) ahead of anything else.

"In person" isn't out of the question, some time from now, and doesn't preclude what can be done on-line, in say a few months from now after i send you the rest of my work here.

Good luck at the casinos, wish i were there with you now.

Sincerely, Mark.

Originally Posted by baccaratedge

Dear Mark,

Does your code rely on normal random variables and you test your code by setting σ = 1 explicitly?

I don't trust the guy on the 30 grand challenge website. However, I think I may let you test it and share the win results. We will need to meet in person and I will need your assurance that it will be kept secret. You may use it yourself for your testing.

My genuine concern is I don't want the casinos to become aware of this procedure, if they do, I will not be playing anymore.

I am the 'mystery' player from PA who drove 1500 miles (RT) to meet Mr. Baccarat in Tennessee to learn his method. Was it worth the trip? You can decide for yourself. If you have 150-200 units and nerves of steel - you will win 5-6 units per shoe long term. I say this because I waited until now to post my opinion only after completion of testing 600 shoes from the tester book. There were some wild swings but, the system always came back. I have never been able to say that about any method I have seen before and, I have seen a lot in my 35+ years of gambling experiences. There is a huge difference between pushing out a 25 unit bet of your money (can you say Izak's neg progs) or 25 units of the casino's money which you have just won investing as little as 3 units of your own. I consider his the best way to play I have seen so far. Of course, having a workable system is no guarantee that you can muster the discipline to follow it to the letter. I would be lying if I told I can play with 100% discipline. It has nothing to do with the elegant simplicity of the method. It is just me. That is true of any approach i have ever used too.

Originally Posted by bacdoctor

I say this because I waited until now to post my opinion only after completion of testing 600 shoes from the tester book. There were some wild swings but, the system always came back.

How does the system compare over the 1,000 shoes that most systems test for? How about more than 1,000? Over such a short period it would be easy to think that the system is having "wild swings but always coming back" but in reality it is having positive results but always losing them back. How do you know that you are at the beginning of the wave and not at the end? You won’t be able to tell the difference until you test the system completely. Do you know of anyone who has tested the system completely?

Hi Savant,
I guess the best way to answer your question is to say that I saw Mr. Baccarat's 400 shoes which averaged 6 units...so, that is the 1,000 shoes you are looking for combined with my 400. The point I made was that if you have the ability to start play with a 150-200 unit life time bank roll, you will average 5-6 units per shoe. That is the 'worst case' scenario encountered in my testing and Mr. Baccarat's testing. Normal case scenario, you would start off needing much less. It is all about being able to hit some favorable shoes early on.
BD